The housing affordability crisis has boosted migration to areas vulnerable to floods, wildfires, and extreme heat

Frequent flooding has direct and indirect consequences on roads and traffic: while some roads flood and become impracticable, others see traffic clogs and delays as drivers take alternative routes.

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• More people are moving into disaster-prone areas than moving out, Redfin reported.
• That's as these regions have a larger housing inventory and an uptick in construction.
• Almost half of recently moved Americans think climate risks may impact home prices.

The amount of Americans moving to disaster-prone regions far outweighs the amount of people leaving them, Redfin reported.

Net migration into counties with flood risk was 384,000 in 2021 and 2022, up 103% from the 2019-2020 period. 

The figure for areas at risk of wildfires was 446,000, up 51%, and areas vulnerable to extreme heat saw 629,000 more people come in than leave, a 17% rise.

"It's human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value," said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. "It's also human nature to discount risks that are tough to measure, like climate change." 

Willingness to reside in these areas is a side effect of the pandemic housing boom, as well as the affordability crisis that has since ensued, according to Redfin.

During the height of COVID-19, low mortgage rates and a burst of remote work led many homebuyers to resettle in states such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona. 

Such regions have ample housing availability, but are more exposed to dangers such as hurricanes and wildfires. 

Not only do these areas have more inventory to choose from, Redfin found that new construction is also increasing in these regions. Over half of new homes built in the past decade are vulnerable to fire risk, while 45% are faced with prospects of drought. 

And many of the new arrivals are aware of the dangers they face. Redfin surveyed a number of residents who had recently moved in the previous year, and found that 48.7% expect climate disasters, high temperatures, and rising sea levels to impact home prices within the next decade.

It's a perspective that's been previously pushed by DeltaTerra's Capital Dave Burt — an analyst who predicted the 2008 housing crash — who cautioned that as much as a fifth of the market is overvalued, due to a failure to account for flood risk. 

Despite this, Redfin noted that Florida remains a top destination for those moving, while encompassing eight out of the 10 high-flood-risk counties in the country. That's countered by an exodus from Louisiana, where high insurance costs are pushing people out. 

According to a previous report that also observed the migration trend to disaster-prone areas, climate-fueled risks are expected to tick up, forcing further movement. In 2020, 1.7 Americans were displaced due to such factors.

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