Trump's overinflated macho persona could spark international problems in the waning days of his presidency.
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- We are entering the waning days of the Trump presidency.
- But just because Trump is about to be kicked out of the White House doesn't mean he can't cause problems on the way out.
- Trump is looking to bolster his macho, strongman reputation after his electoral loss and that means he could look to flex his muscles as Commander in Chief in his last months as president.
- Brett Bruen was the director of global engagement in the Obama White House and a career American diplomat. He runs the crisis-communications agency Global Situation Room.
- This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
The president has had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year.
Donald Trump's management of COVID-19 only served to exacerbate the pandemic. As a result, the economy collapsed. Faced with unprecedented outrage over racial injustice, he has worsened the country's wounds. Then there was the election he lost to President-elect Joe Biden.
Given the magnitude of this mess - mostly of his own creation or exacerbation, Trump desperately needs to strengthen his standing before leaving office.
His undemocratic efforts to overturn the results are not bearing fruit. Instead, it just looks like a whole lot of sour grapes. The legal flailing makes him look weak, which is a very uncomfortable place for such a fragile fellow. Something has to be done before he leaves office to shore up his macho image, especially as he eyes another run in 2024.
He begrudgingly acknowledged reality this week, in his own way. He did not just lose one election, he lost over three dozen lawsuits and support of key Republicans. In some ways, this precarious political position increases the likelihood that he could take extreme steps to boost his now badly blemished brand.
Trump is already trying to undermine Joe Biden
A key part of Trump's strategy is aimed at weakening Biden even before he takes office. Delegitimizing him is only stage one. We are already seeing attempts to saddle him with so many problems, he cannot hope to make much progress. There appears to be little regard for the considerable consequences it creates for our country.
This "salt the Earth" strategy has played out through the Trump administration's lack of effort to stem the spread of COVID-19. Trump has done nothing to assist the millions of Americans who have borne the brunt of the economic crisis — and the Treasury Department is now actively undermining programs designed to help the economy. He is recklessly pulling our troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, emboldening the Taliban and the Islamic State.
All of these moves add up to a simple fact: the next several weeks are very likely to be the most dangerous of his presidency.
The worst case scenario: a truly belligerent Trump
Enter the even more worrying possibility he could manufacture or muddle into a foreign crisis. After years of national security negligence, there are certainly no shortage of scary scenarios.
According to recent reports the president was actively exploring options against Tehran.
China is always atop his list of rhetorical and real targets. Trump is also reportedly weighing options on how to go after Beijing before leaving office In the past he has threatened to invade Venezuela and relations with Cuba have certainly worsened.
Just like in the movie Wag the Dog, a manufactured or provoked international crisis, would allow Trump to brandish his Commander in Chief credentials before walking out of the White House. He would be able to launch the first strike and reap the reputational benefits of appearing "strong" without having to manage the follow up and fallout.
President Biden would then be handed a difficult deck. Withdrawing would be challenging, while the political and security consequences of staying the course would be high. Meanwhile, the former president will be tweeting constant criticism from the sidelines.
In the event that Trump takes some sort of unilateral action, it is unlikely he could convince many or any countries to join a coalition. The United States might well witness an unprecedented response from the international community. We are talking about other nations cutting off diplomatic relations and even sanctions against our country, along with American companies. The political, economic, and security consequences would be considerable.
A check on a dangerous lame duck
Trump has proven his willingness to break traditions and even laws to further his personal and political goals. Using the White House and official acts like a citizenship ceremony for his party's national convention were obscene and obviously a violation of the rules. Yet, no one stepped in to stop him. We now have to be prepared that he is willing to go much farther.
So how do we stop it from happening? It's critical that our leaders especially those on the Republican side of the aisle are vigilant and very directly trying to dissuade the president from pursuing such a path. This is their chance to redeem themselves from their shameful silence on who won the presidential elections. The press and pundits need to try and put any concerns or claims of a crisis in context. We need to avoid the echo chamber effects that have led us into ill-advised conflicts in the past.
Trump has often treated the military as a political prop. They are useful for parades and portraying himself as a strong leader. Yet, his alleged comments to aides, along with similar prior remarks, deriding the service and sacrifice of our troops belies an astounding lack of respect.
While almost any other president would think long and hard before sending American soldiers into harm's way, this one would not. He sees them as little more than "losers" and "suckers" who should fight for his political life. That is what makes the next weeks so scary.
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