Experts explain why a Russian oil price cap might fall flat and instead give Putin's biggest crude customers a boost.
Welcome back, readers. Senior reporter Phil Rosen here, I hope you had a restful Thanksgiving weekend.
December 5 is one week from today, and it's not a stretch to say it could mark a historic turning point for how oil moves around the world.
That day marks the beginning of a price cap on Russian oil, as well as a new European Union ban on seaborne Russian crude imports.
I spoke to two top oil experts to understand what the price cap could mean for global crude markets, as well as major players like Russia, China, and India.
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1. The idea behind a price cap is to keep Russian barrels on the market while limiting how much money Russia can make from those barrels.
Simple right?
Not exactly.
On a phone call before Thanksgiving, oil historian and author Gregory Brew told me that it's hard to pinpoint just how high or low a price cap should be because, as things stand, Russia is already selling crude at a steep discount.
Big buyers like China and India, Brew explained, are bidding on Russian crude at about $25 below Brent prices, or about $60. They and other buyers in Asia won't feel obligated to commit to the price cap because it may not be any lower than what they currently pay.
"What it suggests is that Russian buyers are able to negotiate very favorable terms from Russian oil companies, who have to sell in order to maintain operations," Brew said.
Because of that, it's possible that the West's price cap plan will end up falling flat, with the most noticeable result being customers in Asia bidding lower prices for Russian oil.
To Energy Aspects' senior oil analyst, Livia Gallarati, the price cap idea may prove moot because Moscow has warned for months it wouldn't trade with any nations that abide by it.
"We think the Russians will stick to their word on that because, in a way, agreeing to a price cap sets a precedent effectively for buyers deciding at which price they will buy commodities," Gallarati told me from her London office last week.
The only incentive Asian buyers have to participate in the price cap is to keep access to European shipping and insurance services, she said. But there's no guarantee European companies even want to handle any Russian oil at all.
Nonetheless, oil markets are unlikely to react dramatically to the price cap, in Gallarati's view.
"If [Russia] kept selling at the level at which they're selling today, then no countries actually need to officially sign up to the price cap because they're getting that discount anyway," she said.
Thoughts or feedback? Let me know on Twitter (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com).
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.
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