From burgers to breakfast cereal, some key ingredients are being hit by food export bans — industry experts tell us what might be next
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- Food prices are soaring from export bans and it's affecting everything from burgers to cereal.
- Commodities including wheat, sugar, and cooking oils have become fewer to find.
- "Prices are real high and they don't seem to be going down any soon," an industry expert said.
Heatwaves, poor harvests, supply-chain bottlenecks and disruption from war in Ukraine have sent food prices soaring this year. In response, a number of countries around the world have imposed export bans in order to protect their own national food supply, which has only added to the problem.
Export bans have affected food products from wheat and beef to palm oil, as countries scramble to protect domestic prices and maintain food security. And the scenario has been even more complicated by COVID-19-induced supply chain disruptions and environmental factors such as droughts last year.
"There is a myriad of problems, none of which would resolve themselves in any great hurry," Marc Ostwald, chief economist at ADM Investor Services International, a UK-based multi-asset brokerage firm, told Insider.
It's not the first time the world has suffered from an agricultural commodity price shock. Food inflation was a problem from 2007 to 2008 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, where countries like Ukraine and other major grain exporters banned supplies to defend domestic prices. India and Vietnam, the biggest exporters of rice, also restricted imports to fight soaring food prices.
A similar situation is playing out now, where Ukraine again has halted wheat exports, in part because war will almost certainly disrupt the planting of the new crop this year. Indonesia has placed a blanket ban on the export of palm oil, and Argentina has blocked certain beef cuts.
These bans only stand to worsen a cost-of-living crisis, where people face surging food price inflation and rising utility bills, after a series of sanctions on Russian energy exports.
"We're at a point where prices are real high, and they don't seem to be going down any soon. As long as prices are high, there's going to be a temptation for some countries to try to help their consumers by keeping prices low," Joseph Glauber, a researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute told Insider.
Experts also at IFPRI point out that more food export bans "tend to be contagious, as other exporting countries follow suit and implement their own bans," suggesting further measures may be on the horizon.
Here are the key agricultural exports that have been restricted in the last year and what it's meant for food prices. Industry experts also tell Insider what commodities could be banned next.
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Problems are piling up in the wheat market as major producers including Russia, Ukraine, India, and Kazakhstan have banned exports.
Russia, which is the world's largest exporter, had already introduced quotas and new taxes on exports in 2021 prior to its war with Ukraine, in an effort to cool down domestic food inflation.
After invading Ukraine however, the Kremlin placed additional wheat export bans on ex-Soviet countries. The measures were put in place "to protect the domestic food market in the face of external constraints," the government said, per Reuters.
The world's second-largest producer, India, is the latest country to make the same move. Earlier this month, India said it would stop wheat exports to protect its food security as a result of the war and high inflation. The announcement caused wheat prices to soar by 4.36% in a day to $12.28 a bushel, topping their highest since mid-March.
"India's actions set a precedent: the world's largest democracy has instituted a ban, a practice much more associated with more authoritarian governments," Cullen Hendrix of the Peterson Institute for International Economics told Insider.
He added: "The demonstration effect on other democracies may be large, especially if markets are buffeted by more bad news like lower-than-anticipated harvests in other major exporting countries."
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Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of edible-oils, banned the shipping of palm oil as the country grapples with a shortage of cooking oil.
The ban was also enacted as a way to tame domestic prices of its staple cooking oil down.
After Indonesia imposed the ban, prices initially shot by 7% but later eased after it was reported Indonesia was only banning bulk and packaged RBD palm olein - a more processed type of oil.
Palm oil prices have risen by more than 50% so far in 2022, far outstripping gains in other major ingredients.
In a most recent development, however, Bloomberg among other outlets reported that Indonesia lifted its ban on palm oil exports in light of improvements in domestic supply and prices.
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Alongside wheat, Russia also capped the export of sunflower seeds between April and August. It also imposed an export quota on sunflower oil to calm prices at home, per Reuters.
Ukraine and Russia are the world's largest producers of sunflower oil, with Ukraine accounting for about 50% of the sunflower oil trade in the world, according to Glauber.
"This set of measures will eliminate the possibility of shortages, as well as sharp increases in the cost of raw materials and socially important products in Russia," the ministry on March 31, per the outlet.
Sunflower oil has risen by nearly 68% in 2022, and has risen 50% since the end of March alone.
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The oil crop industry has had no break, with Argentina also suspending export sales of soybean meal and soybean oil.
The step from the world's top exporter of soy oil and meal came after weeks of drought in the country. "The ghost of the productive disaster of 2018 is surrounding 2021/22 soy," the Rosario grains exchange said in February, per Reuters.
"There's new bad news for Argentina concerning the weather. 'La Nina' has gained ground and it's impact will not be diminished, like we thought up to just some days ago," the exchange added. During a "La Niña" weather pattern, temperatures in the southern third of the US usually rise, meaning the region is vulnerable to droughts.
With the onset of soy oil and meal export bans, Reuters reported that US soy meal futures rose by more than 2.2% while soy oil futures fell by 1.26%. Soybean oil, which is used in cooking and even some industrial applications, is the second-most used vegetable oil after palm oil. Soybean oil futures have gained nearly 60% so far this year.
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Away from oils, Argentina imposed a ban on the export of seven beef cuts until 2023, per Bloomberg.
The country is the fifth-largest beef exporter, tallying about 6% of the world's beef exports, according to the USDA.
The restrictive measures came with the intent to cool down local prices for local consumers after inflation hit 50.9% in 2021.
While live cattle futures have risen 12% in the last year, the price consumers pay for their burger patties has risen more quickly. According to the USDA, the retail price of ground beef has risen by 20% in the last 12 months.
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A number of countries have also frozen exports of sugar in recent months.
This includes Russia, Algeria, Kosovo, and Ukraine.
"People are suddenly becoming aware that their food security is not what they thought it was," ADM's Ostwald said.
The price of sugar has gained around 30% in the last 12 months, adding to pressure on food manufacturers and consumers.
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Speaking to Glauber, there may be more commodities that could be restricted in the future, including corn.
"The maize market certainly has been disrupted by the fact that right now, Ukraine can't export any maize," Glauber said, as a result of military operations in the country from its war with Russia.
Hendrix echoed similar sentiments. He said: "If additional products were to become a concern, it would likely be substitutes for those basic staples being caught by the current bans or restrictions, including wheat, sunflower and palm oils, and the like. These would be things like corn and other vegetable oils."
The broader picture, according to ADM's Ostwald, is focusing on improving aging infrastructure in the agricultural industry. "We've had a technology boom and we've used it in the wrong places," he said.
He added: "We've got ageing infrastructure everywhere, we've been complacent about supply-chains, and if we'd actually be thinking ahead above all, at government levels, we wouldn't have a lot of these problems."
Corn prices have risen by just 10% in the last year, a far cry from the 41% rise in the cost of wheat or the near-75% gain in palm oil. But they're still at their highest in a decade.
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