The Delta wave wasn't as bad for the economy as we thought
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- The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report showed strong hiring in October.
- But the report also showed that hiring was stronger than originally reported in August and September.
- Altogether, the report shows Delta didn't pummel the economy as much as expected.
October marked what looks like another turning point in America's economy, as recovery roared back and the country added 531,000 jobs.
"The top line takeaway is that as Delta abates, the recovery reaccelerates," Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at Glassdoor, told Insider.
But tucked into the Bureau of Labor Statistic's monthly report is another telling tidbit: The Delta wave didn't quite wreak as much havoc as data originally suggested.
The October report included upward revisions for the number of jobs added in August and September. Those revisions are a normal part of the data reporting process, especially with volatile pandemic conditions and data collection.
The August report originally said that 235,000 payrolls were added; that was revised to 366,000 in September. Now, BLS has it at 483,000. That's still short of the 732,000 payrolls economists originally anticipated, but a much stronger number than the initial report.
September was also revised up, going from 194,000 to 312,000; again, that's still short of the 500,000 payrolls that economists estimated, but much closer than initially suggested.
Those revisions "indicate that the Delta slowdown might not have been as severe as we originally thought," according to Zhao. Both August and September's reports were seen as warning signs about just how much a variant like Delta could pummel the economy and the path forward. And while Delta certainly slowed growth and payrolls, the new revisions suggest more resiliency than originally anticipated.
"The Fall hiccup is now at best a Fall deep breath," Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, wrote in a tweet. Bank of America researchers Stephen Juneau and Michelle Meyer said in a Friday note that "the economy has shifted into high gear again after a temporary Delta slowdown."
Of course, this doesn't mean that the economy is completely fixed, or that inequities don't persist. The unemployment rate for Black Americans remained flat, even as it fell for the general population.
"I think that's an important trend just to watch, because we don't want to end up in a K-shaped recovery where Black workers are left behind," Zhao said, referring to the form that economic recovery takes when the highest-income Americans see jobs and wages grow - and lower-earning workers experience the opposite.
The unemployment rate for women ticked up (although this was likely driven by more women actively job searching and reentering the workforce). Full recovery is still many months away.
But October's numbers - combined with the fuller picture of August and September - suggest that the road to recovery might not be as rocky as Delta made it out to be.
"Assuming that the public health situation improves, we should see a reacceleration of recovery," Zhao said. "And, on top of that, vaccination rates should continue to climb, especially as eligibility expands to kids. That should hopefully help reduce COVID-19 in the population even more, which can hopefully unlock a more stable recovery."
from Business Insider https://ift.tt/3bJwGJl
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