How RFK Jr's war on obesity in the age of Ozempic could shake up the booming weight-loss industry
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- President-elect Trump wants Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in charge of Health and Human Services.
- Kennedy has made big promises to fight obesity with food instead of popular GLP-1 drugs.
- Startups focused on functional medicine are already seeing investment bumps.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s proposed appointment to lead the US Department of Health and Human Services could have big consequences for a booming weight-loss market.
The healthcare industry has been torn about what Trump's second term could mean for patient access — and investors' wallets — as the president-elect's priorities come into view.
Now, with Kennedy tapped to oversee the federal health agencies he's been widely critical of, including the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration, obesity looks to be at the top of the docket.
Before his nomination, Kennedy outlined the overarching to-do list for his "Make America Healthy Again" platform in a November 6 post on X. Along with a promise to "clean up corruption" in federal health agencies, he said he's been tapped by Trump to end the chronic disease epidemic. And he's vowed to go after the processed food industry and Big Pharma to make healthy eating front and center for Americans.
Kennedy still needs to be confirmed by the Senate, which could be a daunting task. His history of health-related conspiracy theories, including vaccine skepticism, has sparked concern among some lawmakers and industry leaders.
His likely appointment comes at a pivotal moment for the weight-loss industry, as long-lasting shortages of drugs like Ozempic come to an end. Kennedy tore into Ozempic-maker Novo Nordisk in a September 26 X post, pointing to his plan to address a "sick food system" rather than "gladden the wallets of distant Big Pharma execs." (Novo's stock dropped more than 4% following the news of Kennedy's nomination.)
Here's what his stances could mean for companies tackling obesity through every method, from lifestyle changes to medication.
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Food-as-medicine could see a funding frenzy
Incentivizing healthy eating is at the heart of Kennedy's agenda, a push not unlike the Obama administration's.
Some companies building on top of that mission are already seeing ripple effects from his nomination. FarmboxRx CEO Ashley Tyrner-Dolce said she received two cold emails from VCs on Friday morning following the news, asking if the startup was raising money.
When Farmbox launched in 2014 to deliver healthy food boxes and educate consumers about nutrition, "nobody wanted to invest in us," Tyrner-Dolce said. FarmboxRx ultimately never raised VC capital, instead choosing to bootstrap; the startup reportedly brought in $35 million in revenue in 2022.
Now, Tyrner-Dolce said, "I think you're going to see a flurry of startups coming into the food-as-medicine space."
Tyrner-Dolce said she's hopeful that Kennedy will incentivize more insurance coverage for food-as-medicine approaches to preventive care, including through his role overseeing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
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A promise to weed out 'conflicts of interest' in food policy is complicated
Kennedy has campaigned to get rid of artificial colors in your Fruit Loops, and shake up the US Dietary Guidelines, which are due for an update in 2025.
In a September opinion piece that ran in the Wall Street Journal, Kennedy said he would "prohibit" members of the dietary guidelines advisory committee from "making money from food or drug companies."
That advisory committee, largely composed of academic nutrition experts, does have industry disclosures. It doesn't have the final say on guidelines; the committee only reviews the science behind federal health recommendations. The task of writing up the guidelines will fall to federal employees at the Department of Health and Human Services as well as the US Department of Agriculture, an agency Kennedy would not oversee in his new role.
Still, Kennedy's proposed shake-up is welcome news to companies like Zero Acre, a line of alternative cooking oils used by Chipotle and Shake Shack. CEO and co-founder Jeff Nobbs told Business Insider there's "a lot that feels strange" about how the dietary guidelines are written, including a mention of vegetable oil as a "core element" of a healthy diet.
"The more we can remove any conflicts of interest so that we just have a direct line from what the science is saying to what dietary guidelines and policy and regulations are actually implemented, the better," Nobbs told Business Insider.
Kennedy has loudly campaigned against "seed oils" like the canola and soybean oil that's often used in fryers and processed foods, and even developed a line of red t-shirts and hats dedicated to "Make frying oil tallow again." Experts say the internet furor around "seed oils" is unscientific and sidesteps more important forces shaping what we eat and how it influences health outcomes.
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Kennedy's crusade against Big Food could run up against Trump's pro-corporation agenda, though. It seems at odds with some of the president-elect's favorite food groups, like KFC and McDonald's. Kennedy was recently photographed smiling and picking up what appeared to be a Big Mac on Trump's campaign plane, sharing a table with Trump, Elon Musk, and Donald Trump Jr., who joked in an accompanying X post, "Make America Healthy Again starts TOMORROW."
"Campaign food is always bad, but the food that goes onto that airplane is like just poison," Kennedy told podcaster Joe Polish. "You have a choice between — you don't have the choice, you're either given KFC or Big Macs."
Weight-loss companies could get more attention — at a cost
Kennedy's focus on holistic chronic disease care, including obesity care, could see a renewed funding rush to the space.
Likely cuts to federal Medicaid funding under a second Trump administration and potential crackdowns on weight-loss drugs may limit patient access to that care, however, said obesity care startup Knownwell CEO Brooke Boyarsky Pratt.
Kennedy has previously criticized government efforts to pay for costly GLP-1 drugs.
"We're spending $1,600 a month on this drug. There's a bill right now before Congress that will make it available to everybody who is overweight, which is 74% of the American population," he said in an October Fox News appearance. "That alone will cost $3 trillion a year. If we spend about one-fifth of that giving good food, three meals a day to every man, woman, and child in our country, we can solve the obesity and diabetes epidemic overnight for a tiny fraction of the cost."
The bill Kennedy referenced, the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act, would allow Medicare to cover GLP-1s for weight loss, a move Kennedy has indicated he would oppose.
Knownwell
Pratt also said she's concerned that Kennedy's battle with the FDA could inhibit FDA oversight of compounding pharmacies making copycat versions of GLP-1 drugs. Knownwell prescribes GLP-1s for its patients where appropriate but doesn't prescribe compounded versions, which aren't FDA-approved, Pratt said.
Legally, compounding pharmacies are only allowed to sell drug recreations when those drugs are in shortage, a regulation that's enforced by the FDA. If Kennedy decides to slash the FDA's workforce and go after Big Pharma, it's unclear how that enforcement might be impacted.
Drugmakers and their benefactors will be under pressure
The news of Kennedy's nomination hit drugmakers across the board, particularly vaccine manufacturers. Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna saw the sharpest dip, with its shares falling nearly 6% in after-hours trading following the announcement. (Its stock has since rebounded.)
Some biopharma startups and investors, including those focused on chronic diseases, are getting nervous. John Stanford, executive director of Incubate Coalition, a Washington-based group of life-sciences investors, said investors are worried about diminishing exits if large drug companies have fewer funds to make acquisitions.
"If the large manufacturers are hit by bad policy, it has immediate consequences on our ability to exit our funds and redeploy capital, and we're already seeing that play out," he said. "If this spooks everybody, that's going to have a downstream effect on the investment community in the early-stage ecosystem."
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