The employment power pendulum is always swinging. Here's how workers can stay ahead.

The employment power pendulum has been moving since at least the late 1800s one expert said.

Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BI

• A power pendulum of sorts is constantly swinging back and forth between employees and employers.
• The businesses are back on top these days as employees lose much of the pandemic power they held.
• But there are steps workers can take to remain employable even when their bosses have all the power.

Gone are the days of a plethora of work-from-home jobs and quiet quitting. These days, most American workers may be more worried about being laid off than having to choose between dueling job offers — that is if they even have a job.

The businesses are back on top.

Amazon dealt a death knell to its hybrid work model this week, eliminating one more mode of flexibility its workers gained amid a national reckoning over work in recent years.

The force of the US economy has slowly stripped employees of the power they briefly amassed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic (or, depending on who you ask, continued to deprive them of a power they never truly had. More on that later).

A power pendulum is constantly swinging back and forth between employers and employees, guided by market forces and an ever-changing economy. Sometimes, workers have an outsize influence over their employers, using their leverage to score better working conditions and increased pay. Other times, employers have the power to set workplace norms, and workers are better off keeping their heads down.

"When one side — capital vs. labor, for example — gets too much power or becomes too dominant, there tends to be pressure to eliminate or equalize that power," said Arne Kalleberg, professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and author of "Good jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States."

While individuals are powerless to control the whims of the market, there are steps employees can take to stay ahead of the swing and remain desirable regardless of who holds the workplace power.

The pendulum of power

While an effective visual metaphor, the pendulum comparison is admittedly imperfect. The cyclical nature of shifting workplace power does swing back and forth between employers and employees, but not automatically. Historical, economic, and social factors all help determine who has control at any moment.

Think of it as a supply-demand phenomenon: Whenever the labor market gets tight, and employer demand for workers exceeds the number of available workers, employees gain greater choice and, thus, power. Conversely, during a loose market, when the number of workers exceeds the number of available positions, employers have the upper hand.

The pattern dates back to at least the late 1800s, Kalleberg said, citing The Gilded Age as a pivotal turning point in American employment norms. From the late 1870s through the early 1900s, the country experienced a period of rampant markets and unprecedented employer power, leaving workers disadvantaged and exploited.

The New Deal helped address the rampant unemployment during the Great Depression.

Dorothea Lange

A mere three decades later, however, the power pendulum swung back toward workers with The New Deal, which included unemployment relief and minimum wage legislation, among other worker rights. The pendulum swung on and on through the neoliberal markets of the 1970s and the 1990s employment boom.

Which more or less brings us to the post-pandemic present.

"COVID arrived like a meteor killing the dinosaurs," said Gerald Davis, a professor of business administration at the University of Michigan and author of "The Vanishing American Corporation: Navigating the Hazards of a New Economy." "It changed the way that companies think about the nature of the employment relationship."

But while academics and experts agree that the pandemic was an inflection point for American employment, there's much less concurrence about who actually got the power.

COVID changes

The pandemic era gave us The Great Resignation and The Great Reshuffle, workplace trends that saw a certain type of white-collar worker gain the freedom to quit their job and score higher-paying positions at other companies with relative ease. Millions of US workers quit their jobs during the pandemic market boom, leading to a two-decade-high resignation rate.

Cat Ward, vice president of employer mobilization at employment nonprofit Jobs for the Future, attributed the reshuffling to employers being forced to reckon with a number of sudden changes, including COVID, shifting generational workplace demographics, the rise of artificial intelligence, and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) measures.

"We've seen this moment over the last four years where there's been a pretty incredible amount of innovation and change," Ward said. "Employers have been on their heels to try and adapt to all this change, and that has put more power in the hands of workers."

Kalleberg, however, suggested the narrative of a pandemic boom in employee power was largely overblown. Sure, some employees were able to work from home. Some employees transitioned into higher-paying roles. But much of the COVID-era shifts in workplace norms were unequally distributed, he said.

"For a moment there, it looked like essential workers were going to get a better break, but that seems to have dissipated," Kalleberg said.

Union activity has seen a rejuvenation in recent years.

JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images

While there have been some mini-wins for workers in recent years — Kalleberg pointed to the recent rejuvenation of union activity as one example — the pandemic ultimately cemented an already-existing pattern of increasing employment polarization, he said. The country has steadily seen a rise in high-wage jobs and low-wage jobs, alongside the hollowing out of middle-tier, semi-skilled positions, Kalleberg said.

And with generative AI already knocking at the door of many industries, more workplace change is all but guaranteed, experts said. But whether the burgeoning technology will help put power in employer or employee hands remains to be seen.

How to avoid the pendulum's swing

As layoffs mount across sectors and qualified job seekers rack up rejections, employees are facing a dearth of workplace power.

While workers can't avoid the power pendulum's effects entirely, there are steps they can take to prioritize resiliency and ensure they remain employable even during a downturn, experts said.

One of the most important things workers can do during good times and bad is to build and maintain a flexible mindset, especially when it comes to where they're looking for jobs, according to Ward.

"Step No. 1 is to always look at where there are more recession-proof career opportunities," she said.

Healthcare, government, technology, nonprofits, education, and accounting are all areas that typically experience stability even during tough economic times, experts said. Meanwhile, industries like tech, media, real estate, and entertainment tend to downsize during a recession.

Employees should invest in their professional social capital as well, Ward said. She encouraged workers to seek out a mentor or get involved in community professional groups, many of which help people rebound after a layoff.

Workers will be best-served during difficult times if they adopt a learning mindset and invest in continual skills development regardless of what the markets are doing, experts said. Holding credentials with market value and relevance can pay off big-time when companies are looking to make cuts.

Community colleges are a great place for people to start, Kalleberg said. The local institutions often offer an array of classes on various subject matters at an affordable price.

"We can't depend on employers to teach those skills because they won't," he added. "They stopped doing it because they feared they would lose workers."

In addition to acquiring technical skills, employees should focus on developing durable human skills, like communication and leadership, Ward said, especially as AI becomes more prevalent in the workplace.

Generative AI will only become more common in workplaces as time goes on.

SOPA Images/Getty Images

"People should really be thinking about what it is that humans can uniquely do in the workplace," Ward said.

But even as machines become ubiquitous, the professional outlook for humans isn't entirely doom and gloom.

"I'm very impressed by the potential of AI," Kalleberg said. "It's going to eliminate jobs, but it's also going to create many more."

Artificial intelligence will offer workers endless information at their fingertips, which could eventually give them a leg up in terms of skill-building, he said. Workers who have previously lacked solid skillsets will suddenly be able to use technology to enhance the skills they do have or acquire new ones, according to Kalleberg, who suggested the invention could even be one way of rebuilding the middle class.

If that turns out to be true, it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings yet again, and employees take back the power, experts said.

And for America's millions of workers, that day can't come soon enough.

"Employers have had their way for a long time," Kalleberg said.

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