Handwringing over Biden's age has Democrats worried about a repeat of Ruth Bader Ginsberg's refusal to step down
Eric Baradat via Getty Images
- Joe Biden, now 81 years old, is facing criticism that he's too old to be president again.
- Some Democrats worry he'll repeat Ruth Bader Ginsburg's mistake and refuse to step aside.
- Whether Democrats would be better off with a different candidate remains unclear.
At 81 years old, President Joe Biden is facing criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike that he's too old to be president again.
Even some expected to be in Biden's corner — from liberal comedian Jon Stewart to progressive journalist Ezra Klein — have publicly worried the incumbent president will be unable to maintain the energy needed to face off against Donald Trump in this year's election. They argue that by staying in the race, Biden risks a total loss for Democrats rather than acknowledging a personal shortcoming and voluntarily passing the baton to a younger candidate.
Many draw parallels between Biden and the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who refused to step down from her lifetime appointment to the court while President Barack Obama was in office.
Had then 81-year-old Ginsburg stepped down before Democrats lost control of the Senate in 2014, critics argue, Obama would have had the leverage to push through his nomination of Merrick Garland, shoring up the Democratic presence in the highest court of the land.
Instead, Ginsburg, who had a long history of health problems, including multiple bouts with cancer, died in 2020, allowing Trump to nominate a third justice — Amy Coney Barrett — which solidified the conservative court majority and led to the rollback of abortion and voting rights across the country.
The current Supreme Court is comprised of 6 conservative justices and 3 liberals, though Chief Justice John Roberts is often considered a swing vote. Even if Ginsburg had stepped down and been replaced with a liberal justice, the balance would still be 5-4, with democratic appointees in the minority.
"It was, quite honestly, very predictable," Justin Buchler, an associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University, told Business Insider. "She was going to die, and she could have stepped down when President Obama might have named a successor — she chose not to, even though there was a high risk of her dying, and the result was that President Trump then named a successor. So that was a stupid mistake on her part. Bluntly speaking, it was a very stupid mistake."
AP Photo/Marcy Nighswander
Now, a growing faction of Democrats who previously supported Biden are worried he'll repeat Ginsburg's mistake and are urging him to reconsider his campaign for a second presidential term.
Representatives for Biden did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
'The Biden calculus is a little different'
Ginsburg's refusal to retire from her lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court differs from Biden's situation as he pushes through his reelection campaign. Supreme Court justices are appointed, not elected, and the confirmation of Obama's nomination of Garland was blocked by Republicans in the Senate in the wake of Antonin Scalia's death in 2016.
Had Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Ginsburg would have been in the clear to retire, resting easy knowing anyone Clinton would have nominated would have upheld her liberal values rather than the conservative justice nominated by Trump. On the campaign trail, Clinton indicated she'd fill Supreme Court vacancies with justices who supported women's rights, as well as LGBTQ+ issues, and would defend Roe v. Wade, CNBC reported at the time.
"The Biden calculus is a little different because it's not as obvious that another Democrat would do better than Biden," Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California and editor of the journal "Research & Politics," told BI. "They might, but it's a lot more uncertain."
CQ Archive
Finding a replacement for Biden is no easy task. Democratic challenger Dean Phillips is hardly a household name, Grose and Buchler told BI. And other prominent Democrats — from Vice President Kamala Harris to California Gov. Gavin Newsom — have other hurdles to overcome: Harris is widely regarded as "unlikeable" (a criticism often levied against female politicians, The Washington Post noted years ago). At the same time, Newsom is frequently cast as a wealthy, coastal career politician out of touch with the rest of the country.
Even if Biden were to pass the baton to the next generation, and even if a prominent Democrat were ready to take his place — two very big "ifs" — Buchler noted the current issues that exist for Biden would still be baked into the campaign of anybody who had stepped in to take his place.
"The only time that an incumbent president stepped down rather than running for reelection in the modern era was Lyndon Johnson and there is no evidence that that helped Hubert Humphrey, who eventually lost to Richard Nixon anyway," Buchler said. "So the idea that Joe Biden stepping down would help a successor has no support in the historical data."
Biden has fired back about claims that his age makes him unfit to hold the office of president, including a recent report by special counsel Robert Hur that called Biden "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."
"I know what the hell I'm doing," The Hill reported Biden said after the report was released. "I've been president, I put this country back on its feet."
'Biden is senile, and Trump is insane'
Some see the criticism of Biden's age as playing into a distraction campaign spearheaded by Republicans to distract from Trump's similar limitations on the campaign trail.
Trump is 77 years old, and while Biden has been criticized for flubs like mistakenly referring to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as the "president of Mexico," Trump has made similar errors, such as conflating GOP challenger Nikki Haley for Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
"It's worth noting that Trump is roughly the same age as Biden, and his verbal missteps more egregious," Peter Loge, the founding director of the Project on Ethics in Political Communication, told BI. "Republicans often complain about Biden's age, complaints echoed by the press. But Trump is as old as Biden is, and makes the same mistakes that Biden does, more often and more outrageously."
Loge added: "Both Biden and Trump are being challenged by much younger candidates who are running, in part, on their youth. Both younger candidates are getting thumped."
Younger GOP challengers Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, who challenged Trump, have dropped out and endorsed the former president. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, trails Trump in the polls even in her home state, per Politico.
Similarly, the prospective Democratic alternative to Biden, Minnesota Rep. Phillips, has the backing of just 4% of the electorate, Time reported.
But, according to the latest national NBC News poll, 76% of voters, including half of Democrats, are concerned about Biden's mental and physical health. And that can't all be a political trap.
In the same poll, only 48% of voters see Trump's mental and physical fitness as cause for concern.
Buchler believes the reason criticism of the two politicians resonates so disparately with voters is simple, saying: "Biden is senile, and Trump is insane."
"If we are honest, Biden has demonstrated significant cognitive decline. And Trump has shown some memory problems, but his cognitive issues are less age-related and more like mental illness," Buchler said. "It's hard to diagnose everything that's wrong with Donald Trump, but he is deeply disturbed, and because he is subjected to delusions, and has been subjected to delusions unrelated to age for so long, there are other ways to explain his behavior — whereas Biden's decline is clearly related to age."
A no-win November
It remains to be seen how significant the issue of Biden's age will be to voters as they head to the polls this November. Opinions vary wildly about its significance depending on who you ask. The amount of handwringing about the issue could also change in the months leading up to the election if, for example, Biden suffers a serious health issue, or alternatively, if he can rally his strength and deliver the powerful, candid speeches he was known for early in his career.
Either way, voters appear poised to blame Biden if the election goes to Trump, Grose noted.
"I think if Biden loses to Trump, there will be a lot of criticism of Biden for not stepping aside, but it's easy after an election to place blame," Grose said. "But let's say Biden does step aside, and one of these younger, lesser-known people run, and they lose. You could also say, 'Well, what if Biden would have run?' I think people will definitely make that case if he loses — but I'm not sure if any of it is accurate because we'll never know what would have happened otherwise."
Though Ginsburg never publicly stated that she regretted her choice not to step down, she repeatedly defended her decision to both conservatives and liberals who suggested she'd erred in her decision.
"Tell me who the president could have nominated this spring that you would rather see on the court than me?" Reuters reported Ginsburg said in 2014.
Photo by Ron Sachs/CNP/Getty Images
In response to questions about what Obama might think about her future, she added, "I think he would agree with me that it's a question for my own good judgment."
from Business Insider https://ift.tt/A1KMe9N
No comments