China's June trade data is way down from a year ago, marking yet another big red flag for China's ailing economy
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- China's exports tanked 12.4% in June from a year, Reuters reported, citing Chinese customs data.
- China's imports fell 6.8% in the same period.
- Both measures fell way short of economist expectations.
China's economy has flashed another red flag.
The country's exports tanked 12.4% in June from a year ago, while imports fell 6.8% in the same period, Reuters reported Thursday, citing data from the General Administration of Customs.
That's a big miss, according to the economists Reuters polled. They expected exports to fall by 9.5% and imports to decline by 4%.
In fact, the slump in China's exports was the worst since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic over three years ago, according to Reuters' records.
"A weak global economic recovery, slowing global trade and investment, and rising unilateralism, protectionism and geopolitics" contributed to the poor showing in exports, said Lu Daliang, a General Administration of Customs spokesperson, at a news conference, per Reuters.
After an initial spurt, China's economy has struggled to recover from three years of on-off COVID-19 lockdowns, pointing to a disappointing showing for the world's second-largest economy this year.
The country may even be on the edge of deflation, Insider reported.
Other recent data out of China has been disappointing, with manufacturing activity contracting for a third straight month in June, according to official statistics.
In May, China's industrial output grew 3.5% from a year ago — slowing from a 5.6% growth in April. Meanwhile, retail sales growth also slowed from 18.4% in April to 12.7% in May.
"The post-Covid recovery appears to have run its course, an economic double dip is nearly confirmed," economists at Nomura wrote in a June 16 note seen by Insider.
China's economy grew 3% in 2022 and Beijing has set a 5% GDP growth target this year.
China's flagging economy is hitting young people especially hard. The youth unemployment rate hit a record high of 20.8% in May, according to official statistics. This means one out of five of those between 16 to 24 years old are out of work.
Some economists expect China to introduce a raft of stimulus measures to boost its flagging economy, but Beijing may take a more conservative stance, according to one analyst.
"We expect we will see more of a shot-gun approach to stimulus, with many smaller and more targeted measures adopted," Robert Carnell, ING's head of research for Asia Pacific wrote in a July 6 note. This means Beijing is likely to implement a mix of monetary policy easings, extended subsidies, and tax breaks, "but no wall of money," he added.
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