China just unleashed broad stimulus measures to fire up the economy — but analysts think these have failed to live up to expectations
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
- On Monday, China released a series of plans to boost household consumption.
- But analysts don't think the measures will be enough to turbo-charge its growth.
- China has been reversing major policies to boost its flagging economy.
After hinting at stimulus measures last week, China rolled out a series of plans to boost local consumption to charge its flagging economy — but these may not be enough, say analysts.
On Monday, the country released a plan targeting the automobile, real estate, and services sectors that aim to "give full play to the fundamental role of consumption in economic development," according to Insider's translation of an official statement from the country's top planning agency.
The measures to boost demand include improving electric vehicle infrastructure, expanding the supply of affordable rental housing, and getting local governments to cut admission fees at attractions. No further details about the measures were available as of press time.
However, the stimulus measures have failed to live up to expectations, said Citi analyst Wenyu Yao, Australian Financial Review reported Monday.
Another analyst said the lack of direct support for households could keep demand muted.
"It's difficult to stimulate the demand side with policies," Bruce Pang, the head of research and chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle told Bloomberg on Monday."When residents are generally unwilling to spend, and the government is unwilling to handout subsidies to increase the consumption tendency, policymakers can only adjust the supply for consumer goods and services to better meet the demand.
The state planner's strategy followed a meeting of the country's top leaders last week during which they pledged to boost stimulus measures as the economy faces a "tortuous" recovery, according to Insider's translation of the official readout.
The readout excluded a key phrase that cited President Xi Jinping saying: "Houses are for living in, not for speculation," sparking hopes of an easing in property market curbs that have sent the sector into a crisis in 2021.
The omission of the phrase is an important barometer because it's been a fixture since 2016 when Beijing was seeking to cool the then red-hot real-estate market, per Bloomberg.
Over the weekend, China's largest cities — including Beijing and Shenzhen — said they would implement measures to meet the needs of homebuyers, hoping this would support the property sector, per Reuters.
However, "the steps have been timid, and the roadmap is still not quite clear" so far, Nomura economists wrote in a Monday note seen by Insider. "While the recent moves by Beijing should be encouraged, markets need to curb their enthusiasm regarding the scale and impact of these easing measures."
Analysts have been warning for weeks that China is unlikely to unleash a massive economic stimulus package, but that hasn't stopped investors from hoping, sending Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index up 6% in July. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite gained 3% in the same period.
Beijing's subdued moves to boost China's growth came as recent economic indicators from China have been disappointing.
The purchasing managers index, or PMI, for gauging manufacturing activity, came in at 49.3 in July — marking the fourth straight month the index has fallen below the 50 mark, according to official statistics released Monday. A reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below indicates contraction.
China so desperately wants to revive the economy that Beijing has been reversing major policies it pushed during the COVID-19 pandemic, including a crackdown on the country's tech sector in 2020 that took the market value of its Big Tech firms down by $1.1 trillion.
The Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% higher at 3,291.04 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed 0.7% higher at 20,045.15. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks tech stocks listed in Hong Kong, closed 1.1% higher at 6,886.09.
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