Saudi Arabia is surging ahead of the US and Europe's growth forecasts for the rest of 2022.
TGIF readers. I'm Phil Rosen, writing to you from Manhattan.
For months, friends of mine outside the city have bemoaned sticker shock at gas stations ($5 pump prices make me appreciate the subway a whole lot more).
Yet, for all their gas dollars lost to suburban American life, little of that has gone toward the country's economic growth.
Today, I'm breaking down how stratospheric oil prices have planted Saudi Arabia squarely ahead of the US in a key economic metric for 2022.
One last lap before the weekend, team!
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1. Saudi Arabia is on track for its fastest rate of economic expansion in nearly a decade. High oil prices will likely help the Kingdom to finish 2022 as one of the world's fastest growing economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In a new report, the IMF forecasted Saudi Arabia's GDP to increase by 7.6% this year, just two years after it shrank by 3.4% during the pandemic.
"Saudi Arabia is likely to be one of the world's fastest-growing economies this year as sweeping pro-business reforms and a sharp rise in oil prices and production power recovery from a pandemic-induced recession," the IMF said Wednesday.
Meanwhile, there's little domestically to suggest the US can get anywhere near that level of economic productivity for the year.
Recession talk abounds and the Fed continues to struggle against inflation. The IMF predicts US inflation will average 6.6% through 2022 and drag into next year.
Wednesday's forecast pegged US GDP at 2.3% for the year — less than half of last year's growth and far below that of the oil-rich Saudis.
European countries are faring even worse. The deepening energy crisis in Europe is set to spark a series of steep economic contractions, according to an analyst from Energy Aspects.
On Thursday, benchmark prices for European natural gas continued to climb, and now sit roughly 10 times higher than usual for this time of year.
A severe heat wave, Russia's cuts to gas flows, and a period of drought for Germany's Rhine river have all contributed to a bleak outlook for the continent's economies.
And, all the while, Saudi Arabia is about to pen a huge growth milestone into its history books.
What do you think? Are the US and Europe headed for deep recessions? Email me at prosen@insider.com or tweet@philrosenn.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.
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