President-elect Donald Trump is displayed on a monitor at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 20, 2018.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Trump viewed the stock market as a report card in his first term and watched its performance closely.
A negative reaction by the market to his policies could prompt a re-think by the administration.
One market strategist says new tariffs could spur a negative stock-market reaction.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to begin his second term in January, the stock market could be an important check on the decisions he ultimately makes.
Trump's ability to enact new policies has been greatly enhanced with Republicans in full control of Congress, and he's already been exerting pressure on lawmakers to fall in line with his agenda. Those members of Congress appear keen to play ball.
The market, therefore, might be an important counterbalance to Trump's control of Washington. If his past tenure as president is any indication, he will be alert and sensitive to negative market reactions to his policies.
During Trump's first term, he showed that he viewed the stock market as a real-time indicator of how he was doing, taking credit when it was up and diverting blame when it was down.
Trump "demonstrated a keen focus on the stock market as a 'scorecard' for his administration's success," Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert, told Business Insider.
Perhaps the best example of this came on March 13, 2020. Trump sent the late Fox News host Lou Dobbs an autographed Yahoo! Finance chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had soared nearly 2,000 points that day in response to Trump declaring COVID-19 a national emergency.
Trump sent the late Lou Dobbs an autographed chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on March 13, 2020.
A screenshot from Lou Dobbs Moneyline show on Fox Business.
The moment demonstrated how Trump views the market's relationship to the president's performance, and observers say it's possible that if he were to announce or enact policies that spark a sharp decline in stocks, he could adjust his approach.
Yardeni Research strategist Eric Wallerstein told Business Insider that certain policies that would add to the fiscal deficit and send bond investors into a panic might qualify as an event that could prompt a rethink from the administration.
"Yields would blow out, the stock market would respond unkindly to that, and then maybe he would reverse course."
That view echoed Jeremy Siegel's, with the Wharton professor noting shortly after the election that the President-elect will probably tread lightly when it comes to the markets.
"Both the bond market and the stock market are going to be really big constraints on many of Trump's programs," Siegel said.
This dynamic is top of mind for investors heading into next year given that some of Trump's campaign promises, like mass deportations of immigrants and universal tariffs of 10%-20% on imports, could be met with dismay by stock investors. That's because economists say the proposals could spark a rebound in inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to keep cutting interest rates.
"The market reaction is likely to be quite negative to a significant ratcheting up of tariffs," Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, told Business Insider. "President Trump probably sees the stock market as a report card on his performance, and so presumably, a negative reaction in markets may prompt a tempering of proposals."
For his part, Trump has said that his proposals would not influence US prices. "I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country," he said in an August speech.
There's another reason the stock market could serve as one of the few checks on Trump's power while in office next year: swings in the market could impact his own wealth.
"Given Bloomberg's estimate of his net worth at approximately $6 billion, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of his wealth is sensitive to market movements. This financial exposure may further incentivize him to avoid policies that could destabilize the markets," Malek said.
So, if Trump ultimately wants to see the stock market rise during his presidency, his campaign promises of massive tariffs and immigrant deportations may have to be watered down to avoid the collateral damage, sources said.
"I think any president wants to enact policies that are good for the markets," Wallerstein said.
The office — and the role it plays in companies — is at the center of workforce change.
Neil Murray, a Workforce Innovation board member, discussed workspace purpose, leadership, and AI.
This article is part of "Workforce Innovation," a series exploring the forces shaping enterprise transformation.
Commercial real estate has experienced a tumultuous few years, with pandemic-related office vacancies and high interest rates. The sector is also at the epicenter of significant changes to the global workforce.
"It is the most incredible time to work in this industry," said Neil Murray, the CEO of Work Dynamics at JLL. "We are at the center of some really important strategic conversations about the very nature of work."
Work Dynamics is a division of the global real-estate corporation that collaborates with corporate clients on technology, employee experience, and design strategies. Murray says its goals are to help client companies attract and retain employees and foster productivity.
In its annual global Future of Work survey, which involved 2,300 corporate real-estate and business decision-makers, some 64% of respondents said they expected to increase their head counts by 2030.
JLL's third-quarter earnings beat estimates — it reported revenue of $5.87 billion, an increase of 15% from the same period in 2023.
Murray talked about companies mulling the purpose of the office, how leaders can incentivize employees to willingly go into their workplaces, and how to harness AI for concrete breakthroughs.
The following has been edited for length and clarity.
How have the priorities of your clients changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the changes that brought to office life?
What we do for a living changed dramatically through the pandemic. Previously, corporate real estate may have been seen as a sort of factor of production. We weren't intentional about why we had space and where we had it, what we wanted that space to do, and its function. Is it a cost line, or is it an investment?
Suddenly every chief executive in the world had a view on real estate. It brought much more intentionality about its function within the organization and its ability to contribute to broader organizational goals.
Our business now is about helping our clients navigate that complex situation where they're planning to grow their workforce over a number of years, balancing what that might look like in the macro environment we're living in. It's a very complex environment for leaders to think through.
What's the state of return-to-office you're seeing among your clients?
There's a fairly even split between companies that are embracing some sort of hybrid policy and those that want their people back full time.
In our Future of Work survey, we found that 85% of organizations had a policy of at least three days of office attendance per week, and 43% expected the number of days in the office to increase by 2030.
It's still very much an evolving scenario. The metrics of productivity that we've relied upon to make database decisions don't always capture the challenges that businesses are facing. The time people spend doing emails or logged in doesn't necessarily translate to productivity.
One client, for example, has found that while their productivity metrics looked just fine, the number of patents had fallen off a cliff from prepandemic levels.
That led to this notion that what we're missing is, as the phrase goes, people painting on the same canvas at the same time.
Now we've seen some high-profile companies coming out, wanting more time spent in the office, saying there's something lost around culture and the collective sort of personality and purpose of an organization because of remote working. Companies are finding it really difficult to balance that.
What aspects of the workplace are most effective for enticing workers to return to the office?
The overwhelming evidence is that it's not a single amenity but it's other people — and, in particular, leaders. Companies that are intentional about their leaders being present have seen the greatest results in terms of people coming back.
What people crave is proximity to leadership for personal development. So without getting leaders back into the office, you can add whatever amenities you want and you'll still have significant challenges.
Clients that enacted three-days-a-week mandates but didn't focus on leadership presence have exactly the same attendance as those who didn't have three-day mandates.
Could that be attributed to people just wanting to be visible when the boss is around?
I wouldn't purport to understand entirely the psychology of humans, but I do believe that our research and my own experience is that people enjoy other people. The most important amenity in any workplace is that notion of community and other folks to chat to.
The notion of apprenticeship in all aspects of what we do is very real. The ability to learn from others, to absorb how things are done or navigate the complexities of an organization, is really difficult to do among 30-minute slots. You don't get to sort of naturally observe through osmosis what's happening in the world around you.
You mentioned in one of our roundtables that companies need to focus on consistent, breakthrough innovation across the organization as opposed to incremental innovation from a centralized department or team. Why is that important, and how can leaders work toward that goal?
When you centralize innovation, you can get stuck in the paradigm of trying to incrementally improve a particular way of working. But the technology breakthroughs mean that it's fundamentally shifting how we do business.
In my business alone, the rapid adoption of AI tools in daily business use has surprised us all. We are an organization with 250 years of data on everything from how buildings are occupied and used to what they cost to run to their utilities to their capital values.
The tools available to us now to cut and splice and curate and make connections in that data, which we were never able to make before at scale, are driving us to think about the business in completely different ways.
Breakthrough innovation comes about when you use a large language model to interpret multiple data sets and then you start to ask the second, third, and fourth questions, going deeper and deeper into a particular topic. You find things that you could not have possibly seen or connected otherwise.
Mark Spitznagel, a bearish investor, predicts stocks may soon lose over half their value in a sell-off.
He says a recession could happen by the of the year, fueled by the government's $34 trillion debt.
His fund, Universa Investments, has made billions from past stock-market crises.
A black-swan investor, Mark Spitznagel, says the stock market is heading for a historic sell-off, reiterating an uberbearish warning for investors who are getting comfortable with steady stock gains amid the frenzy over artificial intelligence.
He pointed to similarities with the dot-com bubble, when investors poured money into tech stocks before the frenzy fizzled and the Nasdaq crashed in 2000.
"You don't feel like a fool for making a bearish argument," he told the Journal.
But Spitznagel said the bubble — and the impact of its bursting — would be even more extreme this time around, as the government's $34 trillion debt would make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to turn the economy around in time to avoid a recession.
Spitznagel said the current rally would likely continue for months as inflation continues to fall and the Fed eases monetary policy, adding that stocks could soon lose over half their value in a subsequent sell-off.
"I think we're on the way to something really, really bad — but of course I'd say that," Spitznagel said.
Spitznagel's Universa Investments fund bets on "black swan" events moving markets. He made billions during the 2008 stock-market crash, the 2015 flash crash, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.
He's been warning of a crash since January 2023, so while it's not the first time he's sounded the alarm, he said the timeline of a coming crisis was clearer now and that a recession could be in sight before the end of the year.
Misinformation about drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy run rampant.
Getty IMages
Shares of obesity drug makers have tumbled since Trump picked RFK Jr. to lead HHS.
Investors are fearful Kennedy's critical stance on the drugs could impact pricing or Medicare coverage.
Yet, BMO says the sell-off was overdone, and argues the role will have limited impact on the drugs.
Shares of pharmaceutical companies that produce popular weight loss drugs have tumbled since president-elect Donald Trump named Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, but analysts at BMO Capital Markets said this week that the selloff is overdone.
Since Kennedy's nomination last Thursday, stocks like Wegovy and Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk and Zepbound maker Eli Lilly have lost 3% and 7%, respectively. Other weight loss drug stocks like Amgen and Structure Therapeutics, meanwhile, have fallen 5% and 13%.
The selloffs "reflect more fear than real fundamental downside risk," the analysts argued in a note.
They say Kennedy's role as the top health leader in the US comes with limited ability to actually change policy that would impact the pricing and availability of the drugs. As a result, there is likely little risk to the shares of companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
"The head of HHS is typically a more administrative position," the analysts said.
Kennedy has previously pledged to fight obesity with nutrition instead of GLP-1 drugs. In an interview with Fox News last month, he pointed to a bill that would make Ozempic available to overweight Americans, which would cost $3 trillion per year, he said. He suggested those funds would be better used for other initiatives.
"If we spend about one-fifth of that giving good food, three meals a day to every man, woman, and child in our country, we can solve the obesity and diabetes epidemic overnight for a tiny fraction of the cost," he said.
In reality, though, the health secretary has limited actual authority to influence either GLP-1 drug pricing or the passage of future bills like the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act, which expands Medicare coverage to cover weight loss drugs, the BMO analysts said.
If a public health emergency was declared, the secretary could adjust Medicare reimbursement for some "Part B" drugs, but weight loss drugs fall under "Part D," the analysts say.
"While RFK Jr. appears less optimistic on the use of incretins to curb the obesity crisis, he remains limited in his ability to influence either policy or pricing of obesity medications," the analysts said.
As a result, weight loss drugs still have massive potential, the analysts said, pointing to Novo Nordisk's recent Wegovy launch in China, which has a largely untapped potential market of around 180 million obese adults.
"Importantly, China's national healthcare will not cover Wegovy, and upcoming patent expiration may limit long-term sales in the geography, but we continue to highlight the significant size of patient population and prevalence of cash payment in China may be a tailwind that benefits Novo going forward," the analysts say.
The analysts maintain their $156 price target for Novo Nordisk stock, implying 52% upside from current levels, as well as a price target of $1010 for Eli Lilly, a potential 38% rise.
Kennedy's nomination also sparked a sell-off in health stocks more broadly, particularly among vaccine makers like Moderna, Pfizer, and GSK, as well as a range of European healthcare stocks with exposure to the US market. Kennedy has been a vocal skeptic of vaccines, once calling those that protect against COVID-19 a "crime against humanity."
The sector's losses stand out from much of the rest of the market, which has rallied on the hopes that Trump's deregulatory policies and corporate tax cuts will boost profitability.
The laws of supply and demand explain it: the supply shortage — estimates of which range from 2.8 million homes to more than 7 million homes — coupled with an uptick in demand in recent years has sent prices soaring.
The leader of the top trade association and lobby for the home construction industry thinks there are a few key obstacles to fixing that shortage. Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, blamed the high cost of land, a shortage of skilled construction workers, burdensome government regulations, and the anti-development "Not in My Backyard" sentiment for the home shortage.
At least 75% of residential neighborhoods in many major US cities like Los Angeles, Seattle, and Chicago are zoned exclusively for detached single-family homes. This means that as demand for housing increases, these communities can't accommodate many additional homes. As demand overwhelms the supply of land, prices rise.
"We just hear more and more that it's harder to find affordable pieces of land to develop for housing," Tobin said.
A worker shortage
A national shortage of construction workers — estimated at around 500,000 workers this year — has also driven up the cost of building new housing and renovating existing homes, Tobin said, noting that skilled workers in residential construction are in particularly short supply.
Fewer construction workers means less — and slower — residential construction and higher wages for workers, which in turn leads to higher home prices. The worker shortage has mounted as policymakers have emphasized college over the trades, and a wave of experienced workers retired during the pandemic, industry experts said.
Townhomes under construction are seen in a new development in Brambleton, Virginia.
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/Getty Images
Lots of regulations
Tobin also pointed out that builders face a significant regulatory burden. Rising demand for housing in recent years has run headlong into a web of local, state, and federal regulations — from restrictive single-family zoning to energy code requirements — that slow down or kill residential construction in communities across the country, he said. When it comes to housing, state and local governments control the majority of regulations that most inflate housing costs by limiting or slowing down construction, but federal regulations also play a role.
"Those delays all add up to more costs and less availability," Tobin said. "We need all options on the table when it comes to increasing housing supply, which means allowing more density in suburbs or cities."
'NIMBY' opposition
Many of these restrictive regulations are bolstered by local opposition to new housing — epitomized by "NIMBY," or "Not in my backyard," sentiment, Tobin said. Many local homeowners oppose new construction for the simple reason that additional housing in their community would depress their home values, he argued.
"One of the challenges we have in localities across the country are people that already have theirs, and they don't want anybody to have theirs," Tobin said. "We have local government officials that won't back more housing development because they're afraid of the backlash from local constituents."
The future of housing
Tobin said the strength of the overall economy and interest rates will also play a major role in determining housing costs over the next few years. He expects mortgage rates to settle into a "new normal" of about 5 to 5.5% by 2026, lower than the current 30-year fixed rate of 6.79% but above the pre-pandemic average.
Tobin said he plans on working with Trump's transition team, the new administration, and Congress to advocate for tariff policies that don't send building costs surging. "I would certainly welcome an increase in domestic industry when it comes to building materials," Tobin said, "but tariffs only work if that is the outcome."
Jon Collins-Black, a musician and early bitcoin investor, went on a five-year-long quest to bury treasure across the US.
Jon Collins-Black
Jon Collins-Black has hidden five treasure chests across the US for a public hunt.
The chests contain valuable items like a Casascius bitcoin, an emerald, rare Pokémon cards, gold, and more.
Collins-Black spent five years planning the treasure hunt and wrote a book with clues.
Jon Collins-Black once dreamt of finding treasure of his own. Now, he's hidden five treasure boxes in locations around the US — and he wants people to find them.
Collins-Black, a California-based musician turned entrepreneur, told BI that he made a tidy sum from early bitcoin investments. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he embarked on a project: Secure a hoard of treasure, then send people off to search for it, hoping they'll enjoy the journey.
Collins-Black told BI that there are now five chests — four smaller ones and one large box — hidden across the US.
He said that none of the chests are buried or placed on private land, and reaching the boxes does not require dangerous stunts.
He wrote all the clues one needs to find these treasure chests into a book, "There's Treasure Inside." Collins-Black said finding these leads in the text will require a close reading — and a sharp but open mind.
Collins-Black secured most of the pieces of treasure at auction and through antique dealers over the last five years. There are pieces like a Casascius bitcoin — the first physical bitcoin ever made; a green Columbian emerald; a 2002 Shining Charizard Pokémon card; antiques from a shipwreck; George Washington's jelly glass, and more. BI has viewed the receipts for Collins-Black's purchases at auction.
He told BI he had a "loose budget" for the treasure's value. Based on the price he paid for the items at auction, he estimated that the total value of the stash, at press time, is between $2 and $3 million. But frequently fluctuating items like bitcoin could change the chests' worth.
"I was actually trying to figure out what the sweet spot would be as far as how big to make this without making it too big," Collins said. "I didn't want people to go too crazy."
All five treasure chests are also puzzle boxes, Collins-Black said — but if one finds the chest, instructions are placed with it outlining how to open the boxes, so people don't have to destroy them.
Only he knows where the chests are, so quizzing his family members and his publisher won't help. He placed the boxes around the country himself, hiking over a hundred miles on his trips.
Collins-Black said he doesn't think he'll regret giving this money away.
"If bitcoin goes to $500,000 or $1 million, or these treasures are worth $10 million in five to seven years and someone finds them, and then I think I'll just celebrate that and be happy for it," Collins-Black said.
"There were definitely a couple of items where people were like, 'Are you sure you want to put that in the treasure?'" he added. "But at the end of the day, I think I'll just be excited for whoever finds it."
Collins-Black told BI that he doesn't have a favorite treasure in the lot, but he does have a soft spot for the emerald — which he calls a "beautiful" thing to look at.
Treasure hunts have long captured popular attention, from the $350 million-grossing 2004 movie "National Treasure" to geocaching, a real-world game in which people hunt for "caches" of information using GPS devices.
Collins-Black wasn't successful in his hunt. After a decade-long search, Fenn's chest was finally found in 2020.
While Collins-Black has gone out of his way to hide the boxes, he does not want the mysteries to outlive him. In eight or 10 years, he might release more clues.
"I don't have this desire for me to be long gone, and they're to be the 'Legend of the John Collins-Black treasures,'" he said. "I don't want to drag it on forever."
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made sweeping statements about how he'll go after obesity and food processing in his proposed role as head of the Department of Health and Human Services.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
President-elect Trump wants Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in charge of Health and Human Services.
Kennedy has made big promises to fight obesity with food instead of popular GLP-1 drugs.
Startups focused on functional medicine are already seeing investment bumps.
The healthcare industry has been torn about what Trump's second term could mean for patient access — and investors' wallets — as the president-elect's priorities come into view.
Now, with Kennedy tapped to oversee the federal health agencies he's been widely critical of, including the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration, obesity looks to be at the top of the docket.
Before his nomination, Kennedy outlined the overarching to-do list for his "Make America Healthy Again" platform in a November 6 post on X. Along with a promise to "clean up corruption" in federal health agencies, he said he's been tapped by Trump to end the chronic disease epidemic. And he's vowed to go after the processed food industry and Big Pharma to make healthy eating front and center for Americans.
Kennedy still needs to be confirmed by the Senate, which could be a daunting task. His history of health-related conspiracy theories, including vaccine skepticism, has sparked concern among some lawmakers and industry leaders.
His likely appointment comes at a pivotal moment for the weight-loss industry, as long-lasting shortages of drugs like Ozempic come to an end. Kennedy tore into Ozempic-maker Novo Nordisk in a September 26 X post, pointing to his plan to address a "sick food system" rather than "gladden the wallets of distant Big Pharma execs." (Novo's stock dropped more than 4% following the news of Kennedy's nomination.)
Here's what his stances could mean for companies tackling obesity through every method, from lifestyle changes to medication.
Kennedy has previously been critical of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.
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Food-as-medicine could see a funding frenzy
Incentivizing healthy eating is at the heart of Kennedy's agenda, a push not unlike the Obama administration's.
Some companies building on top of that mission are already seeing ripple effects from his nomination. FarmboxRx CEO Ashley Tyrner-Dolce said she received two cold emails from VCs on Friday morning following the news, asking if the startup was raising money.
When Farmbox launched in 2014 to deliver healthy food boxes and educate consumers about nutrition, "nobody wanted to invest in us," Tyrner-Dolce said. FarmboxRx ultimately never raised VC capital, instead choosing to bootstrap; the startup reportedly brought in $35 million in revenue in 2022.
Now, Tyrner-Dolce said, "I think you're going to see a flurry of startups coming into the food-as-medicine space."
Tyrner-Dolce said she's hopeful that Kennedy will incentivize more insurance coverage for food-as-medicine approaches to preventive care, including through his role overseeing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Michelle Obama launched a public health campaign called Let's Move! in 2010 aimed at encouraging healthy eating and reducing obesity in children.
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A promise to weed out 'conflicts of interest' in food policy is complicated
Kennedy has campaigned to get rid of artificial colors in your Fruit Loops, and shake up the US Dietary Guidelines, which are due for an update in 2025.
In a September opinion piece that ran in the Wall Street Journal, Kennedy said he would "prohibit" members of the dietary guidelines advisory committee from "making money from food or drug companies."
That advisory committee, largely composed of academic nutrition experts, does have industry disclosures. It doesn't have the final say on guidelines; the committee only reviews the science behind federal health recommendations. The task of writing up the guidelines will fall to federal employees at the Department of Health and Human Services as well as the US Department of Agriculture, an agency Kennedy would not oversee in his new role.
Still, Kennedy's proposed shake-up is welcome news to companies like Zero Acre, a line of alternative cooking oils used by Chipotle and Shake Shack. CEO and co-founder Jeff Nobbs told Business Insider there's "a lot that feels strange" about how the dietary guidelines are written, including a mention of vegetable oil as a "core element" of a healthy diet.
"The more we can remove any conflicts of interest so that we just have a direct line from what the science is saying to what dietary guidelines and policy and regulations are actually implemented, the better," Nobbs told Business Insider.
Kennedy has loudly campaigned against "seed oils" like the canola and soybean oil that's often used in fryers and processed foods, and even developed a line of red t-shirts and hats dedicated to "Make frying oil tallow again." Experts say the internet furor around "seed oils" is unscientific and sidesteps more important forces shaping what we eat and how it influences health outcomes.
Trump served fries at a Pennsylvania McDonald's in October as part of a staged event on his campaign trail.
Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images
Kennedy's crusade against Big Food could run up against Trump's pro-corporation agenda, though. It seems at odds with some of the president-elect's favorite food groups, like KFC and McDonald's. Kennedy was recently photographed smiling and picking up what appeared to be a Big Mac on Trump's campaign plane, sharing a table with Trump, Elon Musk, and Donald Trump Jr., who joked in an accompanying X post, "Make America Healthy Again starts TOMORROW."
"Campaign food is always bad, but the food that goes onto that airplane is like just poison," Kennedy told podcaster Joe Polish. "You have a choice between — you don't have the choice, you're either given KFC or Big Macs."
Weight-loss companies could get more attention — at a cost
Kennedy's focus on holistic chronic disease care, including obesity care, could see a renewed funding rush to the space.
Likely cuts to federal Medicaid funding under a second Trump administration and potential crackdowns on weight-loss drugs may limit patient access to that care, however, said obesity care startup Knownwell CEO Brooke Boyarsky Pratt.
Kennedy has previously criticized government efforts to pay for costly GLP-1 drugs.
"We're spending $1,600 a month on this drug. There's a bill right now before Congress that will make it available to everybody who is overweight, which is 74% of the American population," he said in an October Fox News appearance. "That alone will cost $3 trillion a year. If we spend about one-fifth of that giving good food, three meals a day to every man, woman, and child in our country, we can solve the obesity and diabetes epidemic overnight for a tiny fraction of the cost."
The bill Kennedy referenced, the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act, would allow Medicare to cover GLP-1s for weight loss, a move Kennedy has indicated he would oppose.
Knownwell founder and CEO Brooke Boyarsky Pratt.
Knownwell
Pratt also said she's concerned that Kennedy's battle with the FDA could inhibit FDA oversight of compounding pharmacies making copycat versions of GLP-1 drugs. Knownwell prescribes GLP-1s for its patients where appropriate but doesn't prescribe compounded versions, which aren't FDA-approved, Pratt said.
Legally, compounding pharmacies are only allowed to sell drug recreations when those drugs are in shortage, a regulation that's enforced by the FDA. If Kennedy decides to slash the FDA's workforce and go after Big Pharma, it's unclear how that enforcement might be impacted.
Drugmakers and their benefactors will be under pressure
The news of Kennedy's nomination hit drugmakers across the board, particularly vaccine manufacturers. Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna saw the sharpest dip, with its shares falling nearly 6% in after-hours trading following the announcement. (Its stock has since rebounded.)
Some biopharma startups and investors, including those focused on chronic diseases, are getting nervous. John Stanford, executive director of Incubate Coalition, a Washington-based group of life-sciences investors, said investors are worried about diminishing exits if large drug companies have fewer funds to make acquisitions.
"If the large manufacturers are hit by bad policy, it has immediate consequences on our ability to exit our funds and redeploy capital, and we're already seeing that play out," he said. "If this spooks everybody, that's going to have a downstream effect on the investment community in the early-stage ecosystem."
Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, has had a lengthy career in business and politics.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Donald Trump has had a winding personal and political career.
From his marriages to real estate to the presidency, he's captured the public's attention.
Here's all you need to know about Trump's family, real estate business, and career in politics.
Donald Trump has won the presidency — again.
The businessman and former reality television star has long been a fixture of the American cultural scene. And as the 45th and now 47th president of the United States, he will continue to have untold political influence.
Trump first entered politics in June 2015 when he descended an escalator at his Trump Tower in New York City and announced he was entering the 2016 presidential race. Trump's presidency altered the very fabric of the Republican Party, bucking some traditional conservative values and ushering in the MAGA — Make America Great Again — era.
More than nine years after his initial campaign announcement, Trump prevailed in his third bid for the White House — after being ousted from office in 2020 — beating Vice President Kamala Harris. While polls leading up to the election had the race in a dead heat, Trump breached the Democrats' blue wall and defeated Harris in all seven swing states.
His third campaign for president brought about wild, unprecedented moments, including two apparent assassination attempts.
In November 2023, his personal physician said measures of his physical health were within the normal range but did not provide details about his medication, blood pressure, or cholesterol. Standing at a reported height of 6 feet 3 inches, some have expressed concern about Trump's weight in the past.
His parents, real estate developer Fred Trump and Mary MacLeod, met at a party and got married in 1936. They had five children, with Donald Trump being their fourth. He attended a Presbyterian church as a child but doesn't appear to regularly attend church services.
Fred Trump made much of his fortune in New York City real estate and was the subject of a US Senate investigation related to taking advantage of a federal loan program.
As a teenager, Donald Trump attended New York Military Academy, a private military school. After graduating, he attended Fordham University in the Bronx for two years before eventually switching to the Wharton School of Finance and Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Trump graduated from Wharton with a bachelor's degree in economics and talks about his time at the prestigious institution often.
Trump grew up in Queens, New York.
NICHOLAS KAMM/Getty Images
Donald Trump's career in business and reality television
After graduating from college, Trump began working for his father and eventually became the president of a collection of family-owned companies that he later turned into the Trump Organization. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Trump expanded his father's business and invested in Manhattan hotels. He was buoyed along by financial and social help from his father, whose New York connections ran deep.
In 1983, Trump opened Trump Tower on 56th Street and 5th Avenue, where he later had an apartment. That same decade, Trump started investing in casinos and bought Mar-a-Lago, his resort in Palm Beach, Florida.
The 1990s recession harmed Trump's businesses and he was forced to sell various assets, as well as commit to a personal budget. His luck largely changed by the end of the 1990s, though his casinos continued to struggle.
Trump profited from his name throughout his long business career, selling everything from branded cologne and steaks to putting his name on an online education company. In 2018, The New York Times published a lengthy investigation detailing how Fred Trump funneled money to his son. The outlet reported Donald Trump received the equivalent of $413 million from his dad by the early 2000s. (Trump declined the Times's request for comment on the article at the time; a Trump spokesman at the time said there had been no fraud or tax evasion.)
In 1996, Trump teamed up with NBC to buy the Miss Universe Organization, which encompasses the Miss Universe, Miss USA, and Miss Teen USA beauty pageants. Trump then starred in a reality television show of his own — "The Apprentice." The Emmy-nominated program made him nearly $200 million over 16 years and boosted his image as a self-made billionaire.
Trump's net worth was $3.8 billion as of September 2024, according to Forbes's calculations.
In addition to starring in "The Apprentice," Trump owned the Miss Universe and Miss USA pageants.
D Dipasupil/Getty Images
Donald Trump's various marriages and children
Donald Trump has a marital history marked by various divorces and alleged affairs.
He met his first wife, Czech model Ivana Marie Zelníčková, in 1976 when she was in New York City for a fashion show. The two got married in 1977 and remained a fixture of the city's tabloid scene. They had three children together: Ivanka, Donald Jr., and Eric.
Rumors about Trump having affairs swirled throughout the marriage, including with American actor Marla Maples. Ivana and Trump divorced in 1992.
One year later, Maples had Trump's fourth child, Tiffany. The couple got married two months later but split up in 1999.
Trump's current wife, Melania Trump (née Knauss), is a Slovenian-American former model whom he met in 1998 at a mutual friend's party. The two dated on and off before tying the knot in 2004 at Mar-a-Lago. The star-studded guest list included the Clintons and Billy Joel.
Trump's fifth child, Barron Trump, was born in 2006. When Trump moved into the White House, Melania and Barron waited months before joining him at the residence.
Trump has been married three times. His current wife is Melania Trump.
JIM WATSON
Donald Trump's political rise and the 2016 election
An ubiquitous presence in American life since the 1980s, Trump floated running for president since his early days as a businessman. People generally didn't take him seriously, and his political affiliations flip-flopped — he went from being a registered Democrat, to a registered Republican, to the front man for a remade American conservatism.
In 2012, Trump gained prominence in Republican circles for popularizing the "birther" theory — the racist and false claim that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States. And in the summer of 2015, the prospect of a Trump presidential bid became much more real when he announced his candidacy at a campaign rally in New York City.
Throughout the 2016 campaign, Trump positioned himself as a political outsider and built his platform around economic prosperity, immigration, and a newly combative rhetoric. His campaign was mired in controversy — from the Access Hollywood tape where he bragged about groping women to his failure to quickly denounce the KKK — but he appealed to a wide swath of Americans.
Despite doing poorly in the early Iowa caucus, Trump triumphed in a series of primary wins and had a strong performance on Super Tuesday. After becoming the Republican nominee, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton in the polls but ended up victorious on November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote by more than 2.8 million but won 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227.
Trump shocked the country when he won the 2016 presidential election.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Donald Trump's first presidency
Once in the White House, Trump was quick to issue a slate of executive orders based on his campaign promises, including building a wall on the southern border and implementing his proposed "Muslim ban," which quickly faced legal challenges.
While running for office, Trump promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but doing so proved difficult and contentious, so he instead chipped away at the law. He also repealed many Obama-era environmental policies and withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement because he said it damaged the economy.
Trump took an isolationist approach to foreign policy, imposing tariffs and withdrawing from revising long-standing trade agreements. On the economy, Trump pushed a $1.5 trillion tax cut package through Congress. Regarding the Supreme Court, he appointed three conservative judges and took credit for overturningRoe v. Wade.
By his final years in office, Trump was both president and candidate — he launched his reelection bid in June 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic upended both the election and spelled the end of Trump's presidency. President Joe Biden had accused him throughout the election of ignoring the crisis. Trump came down with COVID-19 himself during the final weeks of the campaign and received treatment at Walter Reed Medical Center.
When election day finally rolled around, Trump eventually lost both the popular and Electoral College votes. The race was extremely close in key states and took days to call. Trump declared victory one day after the election, before all the votes were tallied, and thus inaugurated his months-long campaign contesting the election results.
After leaving office in January 2021, Trump and Melania moved to Mar-a-Lago, where he has lived since leaving the White House.
During Trump's presidency, he passed a slate of controversial executive orders to fulfill campaign promises.
Chip Somodevilla
Donald Trump's controversies and ongoing legal woes
Donald Trump's legal troubles stretch back to the very beginning of his business career. In 1973, the US Justice Department sued Fred and Donald Trump for allegedly violating the Fair Housing Act in various New York City apartment buildings. The parties settled the suit two years later and the Trumps did not admit to any wrongdoing.
Trump's political rise is backlit by controversy as well, from the personal scandals that have plagued his candidacies to his new status as the first former president convicted of a federal crime. The FBI investigated Russian interference in the 2016 election, but ultimately concluded that there wasn't sufficient evidence to prove that "members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government." Yet the report did find "numerous links" between the two groups.
While in office, Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, but the Senate acquitted him both times.
The chamber first impeached him in 2019 on articles charging him with abuses of power and obstruction of justice. He is accused of offering Ukraine a quid-quo-pro: dig up dirt on Biden in exchange for military aid.
The second impeachment articles relate to his ongoing efforts to overturn the 2020 election and actions on January 6, 2021, when a violent mob stormed the Capitol. As lawmakers convened to certify the election results, Trump encouraged his supporters to attend a rally in DC to protest the joint session of Congress. Thousands showed up, including some from white supremacist groups and right-wing militias.
When speaking to the crowd, Trump did not explicitly call for violence, but encouraged his followers to "fight like hell" — many of those same followers stormed the Capitol moments later, overwhelming police and forcing lawmakers to flee. Five people died during or shortly after the event, including a Capitol police officer.
Congress reconvened to certify the election results in the early hours of January 7 and Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Meanwhile, Trump continues to deny that he lost the election in 2020, refusing to admit defeat.
The House of Representatives impeached Trump over his actions on Jan. 6.
Kent Nishimura
After he left office, an avalanche of lawsuits against Trump piled up, many of which are stalled or are no longer being pursued after the election.
The former president has been charged in four criminal cases: a federal election interference case, a classified documents case, a Georgia election interference case, and a hush-money case. Trump used money from two of his PACs to pay his legal fees, but his decisive victory at the polls could mean that the cases will wind down.
On May 30, 2024, Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to hush-money payments made to Stormy Daniels, a porn star who alleges she had an affair with Trump. With the guilty verdict, Trump became the first former president to be convicted of a crime.
In the federal election interference case, special prosecutor Jack Smith is accusing Trump of engaging in a broad effort to undermine Biden's 2020 win. Smith argues that Trump amplified false claims about voter fraud, pressured elected officials, and organized fake electors.
Georgia's election interference case focuses specifically on Trump's alleged attempts to overturn Biden's win in the state. District Attorney Fani Willis charged Trump and allies in August of 2023, but the case has shrunk in scope and a judge dismissed several counts against Trump. The case has been mired in scandals involving Willis' personal life, and is currently held up as Trump attempts to disqualify Willis as the lead prosecutor.
Trump has previously said he would fire Smith if elected president. And once in office, he would be eligible for a presidential pardon in both federal cases — though a self-pardon has never been attempted. A Trump presidency could spell delays for his state cases in Georgia and New York, legal experts told Business Insider.
In addition to the criminal trials, a jury found Trump guilty of sexual abuse in a civil case brought by E. Jean Carroll. The saga, which has extended over two suits, relates to Carroll's allegation that Trump raped her in a Manhattan department store and subsequently made defamatory statements. Together, they resulted in a verdict granting Carroll damages of $88.3 million. Trump has appealed the cases.
Trump is facing four criminal lawsuits and is the first former president to be convicted of a crime.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Donald Trump's second presidential victory and policy outlook
Trump announced his third presidential bid just after the 2022 midterms, and almost two years before election day in 2024. He easily beat his primary rivals and prepared for a rematch against Biden.
Trump complained when Biden dropped out of the presidential race at the end of July and Vice President Kamala Harris soared to the top of the ticket. Polls showed Trump and Harris closely tied in the final days of the race, though Trump ultimately pulled off a comfortable victory, with 312 electoral votes to Harris' 226. He also won the popular vote — the first time a Republican has done so in 20 years.
While surveys suggested Biden's unpopularity may have proven unsurmountable for Harris, other stats showed how younger voters tilted red, Latino voters increasingly backed Trump, and economic frustrations also likely pushed the needle in his favor.
Trump won a decisive victory against Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
The election cycle was defined by political violence: There have been two alleged assassination attempts against Trump thus far, one in Pennsylvania and the other in Florida. The former president survived both.
On July 13, Thomas Matthew Crooks shot at Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, nicking his ear using an AR-style rifle. A Secret Service sniper killed Crooks, whose motive for the shooting remains unclear. The first assassination attempt quickly became a rallying cry for Trump supporters, and Elon Musk endorsed the former president shortly after.
The second apparent assassination attempt occurred on Sept. 15 in Palm Beach, Florida at a golf course. Ryan Wesley Routh, the suspect, may have staked out the course for 12 hours. Law enforcement officials said that Routh got close to Trump but didn't have a clear line of sight of the former president. They also said that a Secret Service agent spotted Routh's rifle through a fence and immediately opened fire, at which point the suspect fled. On September 16, Routh was charged with two firearms counts.
Donald Trump is rushed offstage during a rally in Pennsylvania after an attempted assassination.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Given the two candidates' wildly different politics, the competition turned nasty at times, with Trump questioning Harris' race and contending with a pattern of misogynistic comments toward female opponents.
In terms of the economy, a top issue for many voters, Trump promised to extend his hallmark 2017 tax cuts and eliminate taxes on tips. He's also threatening a broad 10 to 20% tariff on imported goods, which economists predict would fuel inflation.
Trump's views on abortion have become a sticky subject in the post-Roe environment. He takes credit for overturning Roe v. Wade but has tempered his stance to appeal to rising pro-choice sentiment. Trump has said that states should decide the laws around abortion and hasn't publicly supported a federal ban. In August, Trump said that the federal government should pay for costly IVF treatments.
Immigration emerged as a key campaign issue and Trump has promised mass deportations. His team has also drafted memos to curb migration and implement the same hardline border policies he adopted during his first term.
Trump has criticized Israel's actions in Gaza at times but portrays himself as a strong defender of the Israeli state and hosted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago.
With respect to the war in Ukraine, Trump has repeatedly said he could quickly end the Ukraine war, though hasn't specified how. He's avoided explicitly saying that he wants Ukraine to win. And on the question of China, Trump continues to take a tough tone — he's threatened to levy a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to make sure America leads the world in oil and gas production. He also promised to cut energy and electricity prices by more than half and roll back Biden's electric vehicle policies.
It remains to be seen what campaign promises Trump will enact, but on day one of his administration, he will be able to issue pardons and fire government officials — having previously floated names like Smith and Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler.
Trump could also pardon the January 6 rioters and issue executive orders — though orders on hot-button issues like immigration could face challenges in the courts.
To this end, the president-elect has already started to staff up his incoming administration, naming campaign manager Susie Wiles chief of staff — the first woman in history to serve in that role. Trump has also tapped Thomas Homan as border czar to oversee the mass deportations.
Images shared in a Nebraska AG lawsuit filed against WiFi Money
Nebraska Attorney General
Social-media collective WiFi Money was sued by the Nebraska Attorney General's office.
WiFi Money has made tens of millions of dollars pitching controversial "passive income" investments.
The lawsuit accuses WiFi Money of causing Nebraska state residents to lose more than $3 million.
WiFi Money was sued by Nebraska's Attorney General who alleged the social-media collective offered "deceptive" get-rich-quick schemes that lost residents of the state more than $3 million.
On Tuesday, the state filed a lawsuit focused on investment opportunities that WiFi Money marketed during the COVID-19 pandemic that promised to make investors a profit by dropshipping on Amazon and Walmart's online marketplaces.
A Business Insider investigation published in May 2024 found that WiFi Money has made tens of millions of dollars pitching entrepreneurial philosophy and online "passive income" opportunities on Instagram. The influencers behind it have built a brand off of their flashy lifestyles — private jets, supercars, luxury watches, and endless vacations — and the alluring idea that anyone can "make money anywhere in the world, by doing one simple action... connecting to WiFi."
Beyond dropshipping, it pitched cryptocurrency, real estate, business bootcamps, and investments related to the Employee Retention Credit, a pandemic-era tax credit that has been susceptible to alleged scams, according to the IRS.
Along the way, the group has been accused of fraud numerous times, including in an ongoing lawsuit in Florida involving more than 30 disgruntled former investors. Nearly 100 complaints have been lodged with the FTC about WiFi Money and two of its partner companies, BI previously reported.
"WiFi Money has made a multitude of its customers prosperous, particularly during the pandemic, as well as afterwards, despite ever-shifting economic winds," the company's attorney, James Ragano, said in a statement in May. He declined to comment on specific lawsuits at that time, and he didn't respond to another request for comment on Monday.
Nebraska's case focuses on losses incurred by at least 60 Nebraskans who paid tens of thousands of dollars each to buy e-commerce "stores," but never saw any return on their investment, according to the state AG's complaint.
The suit accused WiFi Money members and several partner companies of violations of the Consumer Protections Act and Nebraska's Uniform Deceptive Trade Practices.
The AG also accused one specific member of the group of making "misleading and deceptive claims regarding the breadth and success of Defendants' 'e-commerce automation' schemes." This person "misrepresented her own success and finances, flaunting a high-end and wealthy persona online to mislead consumers," the office of Michael Hilgers, Nebraska's AG, wrote in the complaint.
"After taking money from Nebraska consumers, Defendants spent the funds on luxury vacations in exotic locales, Lamborghinis, Cadillac Escalades, and other high-end vehicles, multi- million-dollar mansions, jewelry, designer clothing, private airplanes, a lakehouse, and countless other extravagances. Defendants then used their lavish lifestyles to lure more consumers into the scheme," according to the Nebraska AG suit.
WiFi Money has also grappled with another legal matter this year: Its private jet. In May, the organization had an almost $1 million lien against its jet over unpaid mechanic and storage fees for the aircraft, according to another lawsuit filed against the group earlier this year.
The company claimed the charges were "grossly inflated," and in September it reached a settlement with the aircraft maintenance firm, court records from Alachua County, Florida, show, the details of which were not disclosed.
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Zachary Gerth moved his family to Costa Rica, where they could afford to buy a house and have a nanny.
Courtesy of Zachary Gerth
Zachary Gerth is a 37-year-old American who moved to Costa Rica in February 2022 with his partner.
He wanted to buy a house, afford childcare, and have a more laid-back lifestyle.
He is now raising his daughter in Costa Rica and can afford a nanny who is part of the family.
This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Zachary Gerth, cofounder ofStartAbroad, a concierge international relocation service. It has been edited for length and clarity.
After college, I served in thePeace Corpsand then worked in Africa. When COVID-19 hit, my partner, Anna, and I temporarily lived in several states while deciding where we wanted to live. We were both interested in living abroad again for several reasons.
If we were staying in the US, we'd look to buy in a city so that my partner and I could continue working in international development. The houses we were looking at were about $700,000. Wecould not afford that price.
Although we didn't have children at the time, we both wanted to have them. However, we knew we couldn't continue to work when we did have children becausethe price of childcare was so high. We knew plenty of people spent up to $3,000 monthly on childcare.
We wanted our future child to live in a healthier, more community-oriented culture where she could also be raised bilingually.
We were sure we wanted tolive in Central or South America. These countries worked in American time zones, which would be good for our business and close enough for family to visit. Before moving to Costa Rica, we took a five-week trip and stayed in five different places to decide where to move.
We decided on Nuevo Arenal, in the north of Costa Rica. It had a small community feel and was right next to a beautiful lake. We officially made the move in February 2022.
In the last year, we were able tobuy a four-bedroom, three-bath housefor about half of what we would have paid in the DC area. It has almost an acre of land attached to it, with a lakeside view.
Our nanny is part of our family
We found a nanny who lives down the street from us and takes care of our 11-month-old daughter full time. The nanny has become part of our family and adores our daughter. Even the nanny's mother loves our daughter, and often makes video calls to see her.
Since we have childcare, my wife and I can work full-time, knowing our daughter is safe.
We love the fact that she will grow up naturally bilingual and a dual citizen.
The culture is so friendly and welcoming. As we are making an effort to integrate into the community, people have accepted us as expats. We can take our daughter everywhere because children are always welcome in social contexts.
When my family comes to visit, they can jump on a direct flight that only takes a few hours. We feel completely safe here, and I feel confident that my daughter will be safe when she starts going to school.
We love the laidback lifestyle
The most challenging aspect of Costa Rican culture is also the part of the culture I love most—the laid-back lifestyle.
The US is geared up to get things done — especially if it involves making money. That's not valued in the same way here. Getting things done can be really painful, moving very slowly. It's what expats struggle with most when moving here.
But the relaxed lifestyle is also one of Costa Rica's best assets. When we aren't working, we spend our time by the lake, meeting friends to play games, going to the beach, and working in the garden.
Although we never plan on moving back to the US unless a parent becomes very unwell, I can't imagine we'll stay in this town forever. We will want a better selection of schools for our daughter. We may stay in Costa Rica, in a different town, or move to another country.
Independent luxury brands, such as Kate Middleton's beloved The Vampire's Wife, have closed down.
Stephen Lock / i-Images/WireImage
Independent luxury brands face pressure to sell or seek investment amid the market downturn.
Even the biggest and most successful independent brands with cult followings are under pressure.
Experts say we will likely see more brands consolidate as the industry slows.
Sell up or get out.
It's a decision some independent luxury brands are confronting amid an industry-wide downturn.
With smaller budgets and fewer resources than counterparts owned by conglomerates like LVMH, indie brands are feeling the heat of an increasingly challenging retail landscape.
Even the biggest and most successful independent brands with cult followings are under pressure.
Mere weeks after the grand opening of its first boutique in Soho, New York City, drew large crowds, the French-born indie luxury label Jacquemus announced it's seeking outside investment.
"I value my independence," French designer Simon Porte Jacquemus told French outlet Le Figaro in October. "I want to pass down this company to my children, but I have to break through the glass ceiling by finding the right partner, who would only have a minority."
Gigi Hadid walks the Jacquemus runway.
Stephane Cardinale - Corbis/Getty Images
Founded by the French designer in 2009, his eponymous label has experienced a meteoric period of growth. The Business of Fashion reports its sales hit 270 million euros ($290 million) in 2023. Jacqumeus did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
But as 2025 nears, the luxury landscape is proving to be more difficult to navigate, even for LVMH and Kering, both of which reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings in October.
"If all of these brands that are giant brands with gigantic budgets behind them are suffering this economic climate and this luxury downturn," Blanca Zugaza Escribano, a fashion and luxury consultant at Metyis, told Business Insider, "Imagine smaller brands that have way smaller resources."
Seize the moment or risk failure
Escribano said there's been an uptick of independent brands seeking investors as a survival strategy.
Earlier this year, a series of independent brands, including Vampire's Wife, a luxury British retailer beloved by Kate Middleton, Dion Lee, an Australian luxury brand that Taylor Swift has worn, and NYC-founded Mara Hoffman, found themselves on the chopping block.
A combination of the slowing luxury market and the closure or decline of third-party retailers that these brands heavily rely on, took its toll.
Others managed to survive by selling out, including Roksanda, the eponymous label of Serbian designer Roksanda Ilinčić, which was bought by The Brand Group in May.
For independent brands, Escribano said, the thought process is "either we make it today or we're not here tomorrow."
Kate Middleton appeared to be a fan of The Vampire's Wife before it shuttered operations in May 2024.
Chris Jackson/Getty Images
"It's just a very, very competitive category," Milton Pedraza, CEO of the Luxury Institute, said, adding that independent brands often don't have the resources to scale their business by themselves.
"The margins are very low, and it takes a long time to achieve critical mass to have success," he said. "It's almost like a salmon swimming upstream in a very turbulent river."
Successful marketing tactics, like Jacquemus's buzzy food-inspired beauty campaigns or its mini Chiquito bags, which the internet couldn't get enough of in 2019, can fuel brand momentum, but it takes more to make it last and compete against heavyweights.
In his interview with Le Figaro, Jaquemus offered an example, saying its store in Paris' Avenue Montaigne saw a drop in visitors over the summer as some shoppers avoided the city during the Olympics Games, although he said they weathered it.
"In reality, we are doing quite well considering we're the smallest house on the avenue," he said.
Nevertheless, being the smallest on the avenue means a drop in shoppers can hurt more if you don't have the resources in place.
"You have to feed this monster of growth to scale to achieve this critical mass," Pedraza said.
It's no surprise that Jacquemus is seeking an investor as "they need fast money to capitalize on this momentum," Escribano added.
But finding an investor post-COVID-19 is no walk in the park either, as many feel as though they "got burned" by brands "that were just asking for money and burning through it, not really achieving sales, not achieving results, and not having great products," Pedraza said.
"The consumers and the investors have so many choices out there that they can afford to be very picky," he added.
Safety in numbers
Jaquemus may be relatively small, but its decision to seek an investor has some foreshadowing with bigger stand-alone brands.
In the summer of 2023, Kering acquired a 30% stake in Valentino, a historically independent brand.
Rumors have been squashed of a Moncler acquistion of Burberry, the beleaguered stand-alone British brand.
Burberry, which reported a 22% sales decline in the six months ending in September, faces an uphill battle to regain a competitive position in the luxury market.
Nonetheless, Pedraza believes that consolidation between brands and independent brands seeking outside investment will likely persist as they confront industry-wide issues, including the rise of artificial intelligence.
"It's going to be harder for new brands to penetrate into the life of the consumer, to get the attention, to get the eyeballs, to get the awareness," he said.
French designer Simon Porte Jacquemus.
Marc Piasecki/WireImage
But going the safety-in-numbers route and doing so by being acquired by a conglomerate is a decision with consequences.
Brands have historically feared certain acquisitions, Escribano said, as it can fundamentally impact brand identity and creativity.
For Jacquemus to sell out, it could still lose what Escribano said its magic, which in her view, is its head designer's ability to do "whatever he wants without having to explain his decisions or his creative choices to a board of investors which, at the end of the day, is going to limit so much of his creativity because he's going to have to think purely about business."