2025 is gearing up to be the year of the chicken tender as sandwiches take a backseat.
Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BI
Chicken tenders are the new focus for fast-food chains, replacing chicken sandwiches.
Chicken tenders have driven growth for chains like Chick-fil-A and Raising Cane's.
KFC just launched tenders to capitalize on the growing demand.
Few things evoke childhood memories, like biting into a crispy, crunchy chicken tender. Juicy chicken-breast meat coated in golden-fried breading and dunked in creamy comeback sauce or sweet honey mustard — it's comfort food at its best.
Fast-food chains know it, and they're going all in. 2025 is poised to be the year of the chicken tender, driven by Gen Z's appetite.
Five decades after its first iteration at a Manchester, New Hampshire restaurant, the humble chicken tender has come a long way from a kid's menu staple and mall food-court must-have. It is key to growth at international chicken chains like Chick-fil-A, Popeyes, and Raising Cane's.
As the "chicken sandwich wars" that dominated the industry in the early 2020s cool off, chains are now preparing for the chicken-tender battle.
Chicken is a huge area of opportunity for fast-food brands
The release of Popeyes' iconic chicken sandwich kicked off the chicken sandwich wars.
Irene Jiang/Business Insider
Chicken's grip on the fast-food industry has tightened in recent years.
The growth has also been fueled by the chicken-sandwich wars. In August 2019, Popeyes launched a new fried chicken sandwich, which Business Insider called "juicy, crispy" with "well-balanced flavors." When the burger sparked a frenzy among diners and completely sold out within two weeks, other chains took note.
Between 2019 and 2021, over twenty chains, such as McDonald's, Burger King, Sonic, and Shake Shack, rolled out new chicken sandwiches, Restaurant Business reported.
Popeyes' earnings reports underscored the success of its chicken sandwich. Its same-store sales grew throughout 2020, increasing 19.7% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year, Restaurant Business reported.
US-based fast-food chicken franchises as a whole saw market growth of 8.4% between 2018 and 2023, Restaurant Business and IBISWorld reported. Chicken sales also surged by 11% in 2022, with the total revenue from leading chicken chains like Chick-fil-A and Popeyes rising from $27 billion in 2018 to about $44 billion in 2022.
Chains are now eyeing chicken tenders as the next battleground in the chicken wars
Restaurant Business reported that chicken tenders were ranked higher than sandwiches among younger generations, citing a consumer survey conducted by Revenue Management Solutions.
Businesses have banked on the idea, too.
Raising Cane's — a chain that notably only sells chicken tenders and a few sides like coleslaw and Texas toast — is now one of the fastest-growing fast-food brands in the country. The chain generated more than $2.3 billion in revenue during the first half of 2024, Bloomberg reported, marking a 30% jump from the previous year.
Restaurant chains like Raising Cane's have focused on chicken as a major area of opportunity.
Raising Cane's
KFC is the latest chain to get on board. It released a new recipe for its original chicken tenders on October 18, hoping to spark what the chain called the "chicken tender battle."
"The chicken wars began five years ago with the chicken sandwich, but that's old news," the chain said in a statement prior to the new menu item's release.
"We know consumers crave bold flavor, and chicken tenders are a familiar favorite," Catherine Tan-Gillespie, the chief marketing officer and chief development officer for KFC US, added in a statement.
KFC is also leaning into value, another focus for consumers and brands amid fast-food price hikes: A three-piece combo of KFC's new chicken tenders starts at $5.
KFC launched a new style of chicken tenders it hopes will start the "chicken tender battle."
Erin McDowell/Business Insider
In an apparent bid to incite competition, KFC also released a new commercial that depicts a medieval battle scene to determine which chain has the best chicken tenders.
Beyond KFC and other chicken chains like Chick-fil-A and Popeyes, there might be another contender: McDonald's has also reportedly been testing its own chicken tenders at some locations after they disappeared from menus during the COVID-19 pandemic, though the brand has not commented on a nationwide rollout.
McDonald's did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
The craze has reached restaurant dining rooms and grocery stores
Chicken tenders are becoming more popular and diverse, with both restaurants and grocery brands offering elevated versions and driving strong sales growth.
Hollis Johnson
The chicken-tender war isn't only confined to fast-food menus. Casual dining chains like Chili's think they can conquer fast-food competitors with their own versions of chicken tenders.
"Fried chicken is one of the fastest-growing segments — especially with a younger consumer that prefers boneless fried chicken," Chili's chief marketing officer George Felix told Business Insider.
The chain's chicken tenders have been a fixture on menus since the '90s, but they were revamped in December 2022 "to better fit with our guests' preferences," Felix said.
They are "a grown-up version of a typical fast-food tender," Felix said, due to flavor options like Nashville Hot and Honey Chipotle.
At grocery stores, chicken brands like Perdue also market a variety of chicken tenders, including gluten-free organic tenders and raw chicken tenderloins, to cater to a range of customers.
"It's not just the chicken tender of your childhood," a Perdue spokesperson told BI at the New York City Wine & Food Festival on October 20.
Perdue said that its chicken tenders are one of its most popular offerings.
The Image Party/Shutterstock
"You have all the different parts of the premium muscle, or you can get the dark meat and all these different cuts. People are actually using them in more culinary experiences now, too," they continued, adding that consumers are looking for "elevated" versions of their favorite childhood foods.
As chicken tenders gear up for a takeover, chicken sandwich wars are already yesterday's headlines.
Real estate agent and investor Avery Heilbron owns 14 units across properties in Massachusetts and North Carolina.
Courtesy of Avery Heilbron
Investors agree: Short-term rentals are more lucrative but require more time than long-term rentals.
Some are shifting to offering mid-term rentals, which are typically defined as 30- to 90-day stays.
Mid-term rentals offer a balance, providing steady income with less stress and management.
When Business Insider caught up with Amberly Grant in October 2024, she admitted that it had been "a total s--- week and a half."
The 36-year-old ison track to retire earlythanks to smart investments, including real estate, but her short-term rentals were causing her extra stress at the time of the interview.
"I had someone trash my unit, steal the TV. I had a cleaner not show up," she told BI. "This week, for whatever reason, is like every five seconds I'm turning around and I'm losing money and having to deal with a problem. And then I could go a whole month and everything's OK and on autopilot. That's the problem with short-term rentals: It just blows up from time to time."
Grant puts up with the occasional blow-up because her Airbnb units bring in a lot more money than her long-term rentals. Comparatively, those properties are "simple," said the Colorado-based investor. "You have one person you're dealing with."
That's the consensus among real-estate investors: Hosting shorter stays throughout the year is more lucrative than having tenants sign a 12-month lease.
Especially with higher interest rates, which increase your monthly mortgage payment, "long-term rentals are just hard," saidseasoned real-estate investor Zeona McIntyre. "In a lot of places with high home prices, and with the higher interest rates, often the mortgage is going to be more than what you could even charge for rent."
In her experience, the same property that may produce $200 in cash flow a month from a long-term tenant could earn up to $1,000 a month from tenants doing shorter stays.
The trade-off is time and effort. You're managing bookings and multiple guests a month, constantly optimizing your listing, keeping up with local regulations, and coordinating with cleaners.
Real estate investor Amberly Grant working on one of her properties.
Courtesy of Amberly Grant
Full-time real-estate investor Avery Heilbron categorizes short-term and long-term rentals as "two completely different things."
He manages a mixture of both. Two of Heilbron's 14 total units are Airbnbs. He focuses on unique stays — he has a cabin with a fire pit and hot tub, and a tiny home with a sauna — and says he brings in close to $5,000 a month from each.
"The Airbnb is definitely more work, definitely not what I would consider a passive activity. You're actively thinking about it — how to make it better — and checking pricing and all that stuff, whereas the long-term, you just sign a tenant and might have a couple of maintenance issues or requests throughout the year," he said.
It also requires a separate skillet. He considers the short-term rental business "more of a hospitality business than real-estate investing."
The 'sweet spot' of real-estate investing: Mid-term rentals
Short- and long-term rentals aren't the only options for real-estate investors. There's an in-between — mid-term rentals, which are typically defined as 30- to 90-day stays — and it could offer the best of both worlds: generous cash flow for relatively passive work.
McIntyre is convinced that mid-term rentals are the "sweet spot" in real-estate investing.
The strategy didn't come on her radar until 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit and sent her Airbnb business into a tailspin.
"I was ramping up for a busy summer season. Some of my places were booked all the way through May. But when Covid came around in March, Airbnb said, 'We're going to let everyone cancel for free,'" said McIntyre. "I saw one or two cancellations at first, and then it was everything — all of my bookings canceled at once."
Zeona McIntyre, a Boulder-based real estate investor and the author of "30-Day Stay."
Courtesy of Zeona McIntyre
That's what led her to experiment with mid-term rentals, which she'd heard about through one of her friends who was having success catering specifically to travel nurses.
She listed her properties on Furnished Finder, which helps traveling professionals find temporary housing, and was surprised with the result: "I realized there are tons of people looking all the time for longer stays — and longer stays are kind of awesome because people don't need as much from you. They're OK to go buy their own toilet paper and change the batteries because they're living there. It was a whole different vibe from short-term rentals and way less stressful."
Today, more than three years after the pandemic hit, "it's my preferred method," said McIntyre, who wrote "30-Day Stay," to help other investors find and operate mid-term rentals. "I want a longer tenant in there, and I don't want to have to think about it for three months."
Heilbron is interested in adding some mid-term rentals to his portfolio. He's converting a 750-square-foot detached garage on his primary home's property into a rental that will help offset his current mortgage. He plans to list the garage for "30 plus days stays," he said.
Seattle-based investor Peter Keane-Rivera says he's changing his strategy heading into 2025 and "hybridizing" his Airbnb unit, a 70s-themed "Groovy Guest House," which he's operated as a short-term vacation rental for about two years. He also rents two single-family homes by the room to long-term tenants.
Peter Keane-Rivera owns and operates long-term rentals and one Airbnb unit in the Seattle area. He plans to offer mid-term stays in 2025.
Courtesy of Peter Keane-Rivera
He enjoys the work that goes into managing a short-term rental. "It does allow you to provide a unique service and really to have control over the quality of that service," he said, explaining that he is more interested in offering 30-plus day stays to create more consistent revenue during the slow season.
"In the summertime, it pulls in a lot — in June and July, I made almost $5,000 on a one-bedroom in the outskirts of Seattle, so I'm fairly satisfied with that — but in the wintertime, there are lower margins," said Keane-Rivera. "I'd rather get something closer to market rent rates, not have to worry about it for four to five months during the slowest seasons, and then spin it back up for spring, summer, and fall to maximize the return."
He believes the ability to toggle between short- and mid-term rentals "is a real asset," he said, adding that if he expands to a second Airbnb unit, he'd use the same strategy: "For eight months out of the year I'd run it as an Airbnb and then during the low season, run it as a mid-term rental."
Rolls-Royce opened its first US Private Office in New York City where clients can turn their recent purchase into their dream car worth millions of dollars.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
Rolls-Royce has opened its first US Private Office in New York City.
Clients are invited to the lounge-like studio to design their dream bespoke car.
Personalizations could be as intricate as custom paint colors that match the buyer's clothes.
Rolls-Royce's first US-based "Private Office" has opened in New York City.
From the kitchen's exposed brick wall to stunning skyline views and perfectly placed Assouline coffee table books, every inch of the space smells of a wealthy Manhattanite's apartment (Byredo's Fleur Fantôme candle, to be exact).
Ironically, you'll quickly notice there are no Rolls-Royce cars in sight, save for a handful of miniature models.
This isn't a showroom or dealership.
The Private Office is Rolls-Royce's first in the US.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The British automaker's new outpost isn't a street-level showroom where prospective buyers can see a Phantom or Ghost up close.
It's where clients go (if they've been invited) to transform their new Phantom, Spectre, Ghost, or Cullinan into a multimillion-dollar piece of bespoke drivable art.
Like most Private Office clients, it'll likely be their third — or 33rd — Rolls-Royce purchase.
The Private Office is on the 8th floor of a nondescript building in New York's industrial-chic Meatpacking District.
Rolls-Royce delivered 6,032 cars in 2023.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The glitzy automaker sells about 5,000 to 6,000 cars annually, roughly a third of which go to North America, its largest market.
In 2023, commissions averaged about $500,000 — a $200,000 increase from five years prior, Gerry Spahn, the company's head of communications, told BI.
Only a handful — those well over the average cost — are complex enough to require the technical expertise of its design studio, known as the Private Office.
With the help of its designer, the options for your future dream car are endless.
The Private Office has color samples that aren't available at Rolls-Royce's dealerships.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The team can color-match your ride to your favorite sweater, inlay your pet's paw print onto the veneer, or, as one koi fish collector requested, etch a fish into the treadplate that illuminates when the doors open.
In the month since it launched, the office has already seen several clients, including someone who wanted 2 commissions, Gina Koutros, head of the office, told BI.
The design studio has a kitchen, dining table, and living room.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The Private Office aims to pad the buyer's design process with a comfortable, high-end experience complete with cozy couches, a large dining table, and exclusive material samples.
Prefer milk chocolate over dark? Splenda over Stevia? Rolls-Royce will know and have the options prepared before you walk through its doors.
Most Rolls-Royce commissions are negotiated at a restaurant or the client's office or home — not the dealership.
The hallway of fins leads to the main office space.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The Private Office plans to cater client meals from local Michelin-recognized restaurants and chefs to replicate this intimacy.
"If a client wants to spend two or three hours with us, go, and then come back for a glass of Champagne, this place is there for them to come in and feel like they're in someone's home," Koutros said.
It just so happens that this "home" has an in-house Rolls-Royce designer and a wall of 42 chrome fins, a reference to its iconic grilles.
There are several other Rolls-Royce Easter eggs throughout the office.
A 3D model of Rolls-Royce's factory weaves in materials like leather and walnut.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
Look closely, and you'll notice that the abstract wall-mounted art in the hallway is actually a 3D model of its UK factory.
It's also tactile, made of materials you can find in its cars, such as lamb's wool and mother of pearl.
The most colorful reference, located by the entrance, is another callback to the cars' manufacturing process.
The automaker said 90 pairs of hands work on each of its vehicles.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The cluster of dichroic crystals — collectively called "90 Pairs of Hands" after the number of people who work on each Rolls-Royce vehicle — bleeds various colors at different lengths throughout the day.
Clients could see all of the art piece's iterations by the end of their design process.
Clients can feel their materials of choice.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
The office expects a couple hundred visits yearly. Most would be from repeat guests as they chip away at their vehicle design.
If you request a design or materials that have been done before — such as the leather, veneer, and thread samples available at the studio — you could drive away with your car in about six to eight months, Spahn said.
Bespoke demands like a hand-painted dashboard or the creation of a new color could extend the delivery date.
If you request the use of an uncommon material that requires safety and durability tests, the wait could increase to two years.
Especially personal touches for an especially personalized car.
Clients can design their dream Rolls-Royce from scratch.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
Common commission requests include the celebration of birthdays and weddings.
Cara Vitry, the company's regional bespoke designer, told BI that one client is doing both — customizing their Phantom to celebrate their recent marriage renewal and the birth of their daughter.
The starlight headliner would match the night sky of their daughter's birth, and pieces of the wedding dress would be encased inside the gallery. It would also feature a one-of-a-kind color created by sampling the couple's wedding photos.
"Our clients bring the stories, and we craft the stories into a commission that they can drive in," Vitry said.
One buyer visits New York four times yearly to meet with the portfolio manager handling their inheritance.
Rolls-Royce's Private Office clients have been trending younger.
Brittany Chang/Business Insider
Another frequently commutes from Miami to New York, while some are farmers from the Midwest (according to Koutros, some of Rolls-Royce's top clients work in agriculture).
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the automaker had yet to deliver a million-dollar car in the US, according to Spahn.
Now, it's just another day at the automaker's Private Office.
Tiffany Pennywell and Brett Brown attend "Love Is Blind: The Live Reunion."
Netlfix
Many reality stars use their newfound fame to launch careers as influencers.
"Love Is Blind" star Brett Brown did something slightly different.
Brown kept his day job at Nike but does some brand deals for extra income.
There are a lot of potential benefits to being on a show like "Love Is Blind."
For starters, you could meet the love of your life. That is, after all, technically the goal of the Netflix hit, which first premiered in early 2020 and became a wildly successful binge-watch while people were quarantining during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But even if you don't fall madly in love and end up married to someone you met behind a wall, there are many other reasons you might risk embarrassing yourself on reality television.
It's hardly a secret that appearing on a popular reality show can be a savvy career pivot for contestants who gain enough fame (or infamy) to build a robust social media following that captures the attention of advertisers and brands. But that was the furthest thing from Brett Brown and Tiffany Pennywell Brown's minds when they finished filming season four of "Love Is Blind."
As one of the few couples who actually got married and had a relatively noncontroversial courtship on their Seattle-based season of the Netflix reality show, the Browns at first had no interest in joining the reality star-to-influencer pipeline while enjoying their newfound wedded bliss. Plus, they both had jobs they loved, anyway.
But once the show began airing in March 2023 and the pair became fan favorites, they each gained a public platform they realized offered some real financial potential they would be foolish to ignore.
Brett and Tiffany both kept their day jobs after appearing on 'Love Is Blind'
Brett and Tiffany met and fell in love on "Love Is Blind" season 4.
Netflix
After their season of "Love Is Blind" wrapped filming in May 2022, Brett and Tiffany both went back to their regular jobs and kept working as the season aired in March 2023.
Brett is still Nike's director of immersive design, a role he's held since 2021. Tiffany, meanwhile, left her role at as a client lead recruiter at Amazon when she moved from Seattle to Portland to be with Brett and was job hunting at the time she and Brett spoke with Business Insider.
Like many reality stars, the couple has been presented with a number of opportunities to partner with brands since appearing on the show. But the security of having full-time jobs — or at least one full-time job among two of them — has allowed them to be discerning.
"I feel like I've been pretty picky," Brett told BI. "It's just like, does this really align? Is this who I am? Does this resonate? Will I come across as like, 'Oh, I'm just doing this for money?'"
"I'm not just going to do something because it pays," he added.
That attitude also ensures Brett and Tiffany's online presences stay authentic, too.
"It's always been important to just stay true to who I am," Tiffany said. "That's going to come across so much whenever you are talking about a product on your social media."
Creating content for partnerships isn't as simple as pressing post, either — it takes time, which can be limited when you're working full-time or job hunting.
"I do have a little bit more flexibility now, but it doesn't mean that I'm going to take on everything," Tiffany explained. "For me, there's a long game to this, not just simply saying yes to every opportunity that we are presented."
Influencing as a side-hustle has been lucrative for the 'Love Is Blind' couple
Brett and Tiffany during the "Love Is Blind" reunion.
Netflix
Brett said that he earned "a little bit more" than his full-time job salary from influencing alone in 2023, effectively doubling his income, while Tiffany added that they've each individually made over six figures in the social media space.
But their financial success, the couple isn't about to ditch their original careers to influence full-time.
"I just love what I did, and Brett loves what he does, so we shouldn't have to give that up. If anything, it is great to have supplemental income," Tiffany said, noting that the extra money helped her and Brett get closer to their goal of buying a home. (The pair later announced on Instagram that they'd closed on a home in September.)
Juggling maintaining a public profile and working a full-time job can mean the Browns are sometimes spread a little thin. But both Brett and Tiffany emphasized they value being able to disconnect and focus on their relationship, which they call "the most important thing."
They also love being able to log off and enjoy traveling the world, something they've been able to do more of with the supplemental income they've made from influencing.
Years before 'Love Is Blind,' Brett made a career change
Brett on "Love Is Blind" season 4.
Monty Brinton/Netflix
It took Brett a long time to land his dream job at Nike, which is why he's adamant that he'll continue working in the footwear industry despite his reality TV success.
After years of feeling burnt out working in the video game industry, Brett found a passion for designing shoes and began posting his designs on social media as hobby. He only had a few hundred followers, but it was enough that the head of 3D at Kohan, a New Hampshire shoe company, spotted his work and sent him a DM.
That conversation turned into a job offer. Even though Brett hadn't been considering a career change and didn't have any formal training in footwear design, he took the leap.
After a year at Kohan, he landed a job at Nike. He recently celebrated six years at the footwear company.
Switching careers "wasn't something that I set out to do," Brett said. "I just started doing something that I love to do and unexpectedly turned into a new career path."
His advice for how others can make a career change is simple: follow what excites you.
"I feel like if you lead with passion, opportunities will come," he said, "and when they do, I feel like you'll just be that much more happy and fulfilled because it came from a pure place."
I bought a boat a few years ago despite having no experience with them.
Stephen J. Payne
In 2020, I decided to buy a boat and live on it despite not having sailing experience.
I taught myself a lot and have gotten to explore France, Italy, and parts of the Mediterranean.
I've mostly been spending my savings, though living on a boat has been pretty affordable for me.
In 2020, I was lying in bed in Torquay, England, trying to figure out what to do with my life.
My mother had just died, and I'd decided living in the UK post-Brexit was not for me.
Before I came back to the UK to take care of her, I had lived in California for 27 years working as a photographer and filmmaker. But given the developing political situation over that side of the pond, I hesitated to return there, too.
Feeling no ties to any particular country, I turned to the sea and decided to buy a motorboat even though I had zero experience sailing.
For my first trip, I wanted to head all the way through France to the Mediterranean — it seemed like it'd be scenic. I consulted with a few professionals who told me I needed a boat low enough to fit under the bridges of France but powerful enough to cope with the Mediterranean Sea.
At last, I dipped into my savings to buy a 1987 Birchwood TS37.
I've spent the past 4 years taking my boat through France and Italy
Sailing in the open sea is easier than navigating channels in some ways.
Stephen J. Payne
Three weeks after purchasing my magnificent vessel, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and my travel plans were put on hold. During this time, I got to know my boat a little better and practiced sailing, going up and down the Thames.
By June 2021, I was ready to face the open sea and cross the English Channel to France. I topped up with fuel, left Ramsgate, and headed to Calais.
It was challenging but driving through open water was easier than navigating narrow canals and rivers.
In open water, I was able to set the autopilot to keep the boat going in the right direction, which is not possible on the French waterways where I'd probably bump into other boats or docks.
Some channels and waterways were quite narrow.
Stephen J. Payne
After a few weeks, I arrived in Paris at a beautiful marina right next to the Bastille, where I spent only about 40 euros a night to dock alongside some great neighbors.
I'd planned to stay here one week, but it was so beautiful I ended up staying six.
I've spent a lot of time on my boat.
Stephen J. Payne
Then, I worked my way slowly around the Côte d'Azur.
Sailing through France was somewhat affordable, and the people I encountered were so friendly that I stayed in the country for a year.
I had access to the splendid French waterways for only 126 euros a month, paid to VNF, the navigation authority that manages them.
I spent almost 90% of my time avoiding marinas, as there were plenty of apps that helped me find free places to drop my anchor. Some villages throughout France had nice places for me to tie my boat up for free — a few included access to power and water.
If the weather looked a bit grim, I'd pop into a nearby marina since most local ones only cost me about 25 euros a night.
At one point, I stopped at Saint-Omer, France.
Stephen J. Payne
Eventually, I started working my way around the Amalfi Coast of Italy, stopping in Livorno, Fiumicino, Capri, and Tropea.
Then, I continued on to Malta, where I've now been for the past 18 months.
I don't know what's next, but I'm still enjoying living on a boat
I've taken my boat through many waterways.
Stephen J. Payne
Throughout my trip, I've made money doing small jobs as a photographer, but I've mostly been spending my savings.
Fortunately, I've found a lot of cheap marinas, and living on the boat hasn't cost me as much as I thought it would.
Occasionally, I'll look at an old video I made for YouTube and wonder how I went from working as a photographer in Los Angeles to living on a boat, bobbing around the Mediterranean.
But then I remember that I need to dish out over a thousand dollars to replace one of my boat's bilge pumps, and it all seems very real.
I'm still not sure why I decided to buy a boat and sail around the world — and I don't know what's next for me. For now, though, I'm in the Mediterranean with as little stress as is humanly possible.
Cash, the ultimate safety asset in the world of investing, is suddenly the hottest trade on Wall Street.
Even with the S&P 500 up by 22% this year, Americans have poured more than $230 billion into money markets: funds holding cash and short-term debt. Typically, cash is reserved for investors who want protection in times of turbulence — the proverbial stashing of money under the mattress. But 2024 has been the second-biggest year for saving money since the 1970s, behind only 2023.
What's notable about this flight to cash is that it's not the baby boomers hoarding dollars for retirement; it's millennials adding to their reserves.
In a June survey by Bank of America's wealth-management arm on how wealthy Americans were approaching their finances, the bank's analysts found that over the past two years, 55% of investors between 21 and 43 had increased their cash holdings, compared with 46% of investors 44 and older. That wasn't just young people who got worried about the economy or the risks of a sudden sell-off: The survey also suggested that younger respondents had rosy views of the economy and their finances.
I saw the same puzzling trend in investor surveys during my time at eToro, a well-known retail brokerage firm. At the end of 2023, 63% of investors 44 and younger told us they had increased their cash allocations in the past six months (versus just 27% of investors 45 or older). This, despite the fact that younger investors were more optimistic about the economy, their incomes, their living situations, and their investments.
There's something driving younger Americans to save their cash, and I don't think it's solely the 5% savings rates.
Millennial investors have been deeply scarred by two life-changing crises in their young lives. For many millennials, the global financial crisis hit just as they were entering their working years. About a decade later, a once-in-a-generation pandemic — and two painful bear markets — delivered another blow to their psyches.
And now, in the prime of their investing years, the echo of those events has made them risk-averse in their investments. Millennials may be protecting themselves well with their ability to save. But when wealth is built on compounding returns over long periods, their distrust of the stock market could set them back in the long run.
Young investors have become synonymous with rampant speculation: They trade zero-day options, hop on the meme-stock rocket, or take extreme risks in the name of social-media clout. Sure, some investors adopted this devil-may-care attitude, and I'll never judge somebody for doing what they want with their own money. But if you look at hard numbers from the Federal Reserve about what millennial investors actually own, you can see that this stereotype is misguided.
Despite their coming of age in one of the longest stock-market rallies in history, millennials had 19% of their total financial assets in cash as of June 30, the most of any generation. In a way, this makes sense — the younger you are, the less time you have to put your money toward other investments. When you compare millennials' cash levels with Gen X's cash levels at the same age, though, the risk aversion becomes clear. If you were born right in the middle of the millennial generation, you're now 36. These "median millennials" held more cash as a share of their total assets during their 20s than Gen Xers did at those ages — a difference of about 13 percentage points.
What's worse, though, is that millennials avoided stocks during some of the best years for investors. As our median millennial grew from 21 to 30, the S&P 500 grew by an average of 11.5% annually, while savings accounts paid next to nothing because of the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy. Millennial savers didn't just give up a precious decade of compounding — they missed one of the longest bull markets in history.
While the gap has started to close now that most millennials are in their 30s, the survey data suggests the millennial cash obsession hasn't quite let up.
Millennials have had a tumultuous induction into adulthood. Many of them were in high school or college or in their early working years during the global financial crisis. From 2009 to 2014, the unemployment rate was 10% or higher for 20- to 24-year-old Americans. They learned to prioritize cash as they navigated one of the worst downturns in history. Then, just as they were finding their footing, the COVID-19 pandemic hit. We were locked inside our houses for weeks on end while stocks entered one of their swiftest crashes on record. Soon after, we nervously waded back into the wealth-building waters, only to get hit by scorching inflation and another bear market.
Every generation has its war stories. Gen Xers had to process 9/11 and the tech bubble bursting in their late 20s. Baby boomers dealt with their own bout of inflation and high rates as 20-year-olds in the 1980s. Their parents were unfortunate enough to experience the Great Depression, a three-year stretch of the darkest economic days in the United States. But there's something especially pernicious about having to navigate not one but two earth-shattering crises early in adulthood.
Money can be a highly personal subject. Our feelings of financial stability develop through experiences, not classes or textbooks. A 2017 University of Michigan study found that children as young as 5 could start developing spending and saving habits. There's also a ton of research that suggests financial stress can lead to a litany of physical, mental, and emotional issues. Early financial trauma can profoundly shape your relationship with money. That's why personal finance can feel so illogical at times — why some of us may be set on paper but constantly fear losing it all.
I know this well. I'm a young millennial who felt the financial crisis as a teenager. My mom was a part-time bookkeeper at a housing construction company, and my dad was a residential electrician. You could probably guess what happened when the housing market went into a tailspin. I may not have been old enough to open a brokerage account, but I picked up some perverse money habits from the financial crisis that I'm trying to unlearn — even now, as the head of research at a firm that teaches people how to build wealth. Multiply this mentality across a generation, and you have one swath who brought us crypto, Occupy Wall Street, meme stocks, and YOLO capitalism, and another batch that can't seem to take enough risks to build a decent retirement fund. These more cautious ones piled their savings into inflation-linked I-bonds — super-safe government-issued debt that locks away your money for a year — when they hit 9% in 2022. A great decision for an emergency fund, but less savvy when the stock market is plumbing new lows.
Saving too much money seems like a good problem to have, but keeping all your money in a savings account can be a huge financial mistake when you consider the opportunity cost. Imagine you put $1,000 in a savings account in July 2023 — at the peak of the Fed's rate hikes — earning a sweet 5% APY on your cash. By October 4, you would've earned about $60 on that money.
How does that compare to stock-market returns? Not great.
By staying in cash over the past year and change, you missed a 27% rally in the S&P 500. In other words, that $1,000 would've turned into about $1,277 if you'd invested it in a no-fee index fund. There were strong gains to be had in other major indexes, too: a 28% climb in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and an 18% rise in the mega-company Dow. Yes, even your grandma's index beat your cash return.
Of course, stocks and cash are different financial beasts. Cash can be dependable in tough times, and it's often the best place to stash away funds for a big purchase. It also makes sense to have some cash on hand. Stocks, by contrast, are often far from stable. Lots of popular stocks have dropped 10% to 20% of their value in a single day, and you could theoretically lose all your invested money in the stock market. But as scary as that sounds, it's the essence of risk-taking; you give up stability for potentially greater returns over time. If you have decades ahead of you as an investor, you're in a prime spot to take some risks. Every little bit matters, too. Over long periods, the difference between 5% and 6% returns on a $1,000 investment can be thousands of dollars. For what it's worth, the S&P 500 — an index of America's largest companies — has grown by about 8% a year over the past two decades.
The long-term math favors shifting away from cash, and the short-term calculus is changing, too. Because the Fed started cutting interest rates in September, you're slowly losing that sweet, sweet savings rate — average money-market rates have slid to 2.75% from 2.9% at the end of July.
Fellow millennials: As a market nerd who studies how the wealthiest Americans get rich, I'm begging you to stop playing it safe. Cash may feel like a warm, fuzzy blanket, but you're not getting anything done just lying there on the couch bingeing Netflix. Holding cash as an emergency fund or a house down payment makes sense. Staking your retirement on cash doesn't.
Risk is the foundation of wealth-building, so get off the couch.
Callie Cox is the chief market strategist atRitholtz Wealth Managementand the author ofOptimistiCallie, a newsletter of Wall Street-quality research for everyday investors. You can view Ritholtz's disclosureshere.
To help jump-start your travel wish list for the upcoming year, a team of experts from Lonely Planet curated a list of the top 10 must-visit destinations worldwide.
In 2025, vacation-goers will prefer to explore quieter, lesser-known cities over popular tourist hot spots, according to a travel trend report from Expedia. In the company's annual survey, almost two-thirds of travelers said they would likely visit an under-the-radar destination on their next vacation.
In line with this trend, Lonely Planet's list features cities that aren't global tourist hot spots yet but promise a memorable trip, including Pondicherry, a coastal city in South India, and Bansko in Bulgaria. They appear in the list alongside crowd favorites like Osaka, Japan.
From the pristine white-sand beaches of Palma de Mallorca, Spain, to the lush botanical gardens in Curitiba, Brazil, here are the top 10 cities to visit in 2025, according to Lonely Planet.
10. Edmonton in Canada
Northern lights as seen from Elk Island National Park near Edmonton, Alberta.
Jeff Wallace/Getty Images
Edmonton, the capital of Alberta, ranked 10th among the best cities to visit in 2025.
Known for its natural beauty, proximity to the Canadian Rockies, and the many festivals it hosts throughout the year, the fifth-largest city in Canada has something to offer every traveler.
If you plan on visiting in the summer — when the sun is up for as long as 17 hours some days — nearby sights to add to your travel itinerary include Jasper National Park, the Canadian Rockies, and the Saskatchewan River Valley.
In winter, the city transforms into a winter wonderland filled with activities like skiing, skating, and ice wall climbing. Depending on your appetite for adventure, you can explore and watch the northern lights at Elk Island National Park or snowshoe across the Valley.
9. Palma de Mallorca in Spain
The Palma Cathedral in Palma de Mallorca.
Felipe Santibañez/Lonely Planet
When you think of visiting Spain, places that instantly come to mind might include Barcelona, Madrid, or Ibiza. But Palma on the island of Mallorca, which is east of mainland Spain, is equally worthy of a trip.
Palma's iconic cathedral, La Seu, is a must-visit for travelers who love architecture. It dates back to the 13th century and was renovated by architect Antoni Gaudí in the early 20th century. Nearby are the Bishop's Garden and the Banys Àrabs, or Arab Baths.
For adventure enthusiasts, the UNESCO World Heritage Site Serra de Tramuntana, located in the northwestern part of the island, is a short 45-minute drive from the main city. The mountain range can be explored by walking, hiking, or biking across.
8. Curitiba in Brazil
Old town hall in Curitiba, Brazil.
Det-anan/Shutterstock
In the past, Curitiba has mostly made headlines for its smart urban planning, sustainability initiatives, and expansive green spaces, but soon, it could become a hub for eco-curious travelers.
Visitors can explore the Museu Oscar Niemeyer, a modernist museum built in the shape of an eye perched upon a building, or spend a day at the botanical gardens then stroll through the city's pedestrian-only cobblestone streets at Largo da Ordem.
The city's public transport system, the Bus Rapid Transport, is known for its efficiency, but its train service, the Serra Verde Express, to Morretes, which passes through mountains and rainforests, is a complete experience in itself.
7. Osaka in Japan
Kani Doraku, pictured here, is a famous seafood restaurant in Namba, an entertainment and shopping district in Osaka.
Starting in April next year, the city will re-host the World Expo — one of the biggest global showcases of innovations in science and design — at Yumeshima, welcoming over 28 million visitors from all over the world, per the US Department of State.
If you prefer exploring the city alone, some sights include Dōtonbori's neon light-covered streets, the Osaka Castle, and the Osaka Museum of History.
6. Pittsburgh in the USA
Downtown Pittsburgh shows the Roberto Clemente Bridge over the Allegheny River. The Renaissance Hotel and the iconic US Steel Tower are also featured.
Anthem Video/Lonely Planet
If your idea of a holiday involves shuffling between bars and restaurants and visiting historical landmarks, Pittsburgh has many local restaurants, breweries, artisanal cafés, and storied industrial-era monuments to pick from.
Some highlights include a factory-turned Andy Warhol Museum, which is home to photos, films, and other artworks by the artist, the Heinz History Center, which has the world's oldest Jeep on display, and the Wigle Whiskey Distillery.
Lonely Planet experts recommend planning your visit between May and October, as the winter weather can be unpredictable.
5. Genoa in Italy
Boats lined up along the coast of Genoa.
Luca Siciliano/Lonely Planet
The ideal spot for a slowcation, this Italian city has a distinctly old-world charm to it.
Known for its rich maritime history and beautiful architecture, the city is often less crowded than other cities by the Italian Riviera, such as Portofino or Cinque Terre.
Visitors can explore the historical old town and its many local boutiques or stroll through Porto Antico while enjoying fresh focaccia from one of the waterfront restaurants.
4. Chiang Mai in Thailand
Wat Chedi Luang, one of Chiang Mai's most important and historically significant temples, is located in the heart of the Old City.
Frame/Lonely Planet
Often called the cultural capital of Thailand, Chiang Mai is fourth among the best cities to visit in 2025, according to Lonely Planet.
Nestled amid the country's northern mountains, the city is perfect for travelers on a tight budget and has a much more relaxed vibe than Bangkok, which is a train ride away.
Locals emphasize spiritual exploration and practicing wellness techniques, and there are many sanctuaries and temples in the city.
Visit one of the many Buddhist temples, including the famous Wat Phra That Doi Suthep, and stop by the elephant sanctuaries for a fun wildlife experience. The city's night markets featuring varied local cuisine, fruit and vegetables, and crafts are also a must-see.
3. Bansko in Bulgaria
Alpine ski resort in Bansko.
urbaneye011/Shutterstock
A popular ski resort town in Bulgaria, Bansko is emerging as a year-round global destination for travelers in 2025.
While the city is well known for its winter slopes, it has much to offer in summertime. Highlights include hiking trails at the Pirin National Park, which is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, a hearty meal at a traditional Bulgarian tavern, or strolling through the old town.
2. Pondicherry in India
A beach in Pondicherry.
PhotopankPL/Shutterstock
Ranked second on Lonely Planet's list of the best cities to travel to in 2025, this chic seaside town emanates a relaxed, laid-back vibe.
The city, which is on India's southeastern coast, has a storied colonial past, and those influences are visible in its food, architecture, and art.
Visitors can walk through its French Quarter, which is lined with pastel-colored villas and cafés, or lounge by the beach.
When you've explored the city, make some time to visit and spend a day at Auroville, the city's experimental township known for its focus on sustainability and spirituality.
1. Toulouse in France
Dome de la Grave in Toulouse.
Getty Images
Often called La Ville Rose or the pink city because of its terracotta-colored buildings, Toulouse is poised to be a top travel destination in 2025.
Located in southwestern France, the city is popular for its aerospace industry and rich cultural heritage.
Visit the impressive Place du Capitole, the city's historic square, or tour the Cité de l'Espace, an interactive space museum highlighting the city's role in aviation.
There are also plenty of delectable dishes to try when exploring local restaurants, especially the cassoulet, a slow-cooked stew.
Cities like Seattle, Minneapolis and Denver are prime candidates for co-living conversions from offices, the study found.
PNC / Getty Images
A study finds that dorm-style housing could be an efficient path to convert vacant office space.
Conversions to apartments are often costly and can face regulatory barriers.
The study comes as office vacancies rise and housing supply remains constrained.
Conversion to housing is often touted as a solution to the problems facing the office sector, and a new study points to a more efficient way to pull off such overhauls, which are usually costly and difficult.
"Flexible co-living," or dormitory-style apartments where residents share kitchen, bathroom, laundry and living spaces, could be a more efficient path to converting unused space, according to a study published Tuesday by the Pew Charitable Trusts and design firm Gensler
It's "an innovative approach to the office-to-residential conversion market—one that is scalable and poised to facilitate meaningful, long-term transformation in these cities and the lives of its residents," said Wes LeBlanc, Principal and Strategy Director at Gensler.
The report comes as companies reevaluate their need for office space in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. With many workers still remote or in hybrid positions, office vacancies have climbed. The national office vacancy rate is set to rise to around 20% by the end of this year, according to commercial real estate firm CBRE.
At the same time, the US faces a housing supply problem, with the country short between 2.3 million and 6.5 million units, according to Realtor.com data. As a result, a record 50% of renters are cost-burdened, or spend more than 30% of their income on rent, the new report says.
Office-to-residential conversions have been touted as a solution to problems in both commercial and residential markets, but such overhauls are often costly and complicated.
Some architects have cut holes in the middle of skyscrapers to bring in more light, but such huge redevelopment, plus the high costs of plumbing and electrical system makeovers, comes at a huge cost. That might be justified for luxury units, but less so for more affordable housing.
The firms' study says dorm-style renovations would be far cheaper and more feasible. They suggest a setup with furnished, dorm-style apartments on the perimeter of floors to maximize natural light and ensure each unit has a window. Shared spaces, meanwhile, will cover the middle of each floor.
They say such a setup would lower construction costs by 25%-35% compared to traditional office conversions, which would allow for lower rents that would be affordable for those earning well below the area's median income.
The report suggests this setup looks especially promising in three cities—Denver, Minneapolis and Seattle— where soaring office vacancy rates, high median rents, and minimal local regulatory barriers provide an ideal backdrop for office conversions to co-living spaces.
In an example mapped out for Seattle, where the downtown office vacancy rates average 30%, the study propsed a 120 square foot unit outfitted with a bed, desk, microwave, and refrigerator. (The typical studio in Seattle is more than three times that size at 440 square feet.)
Such a model would cost renters around $1,000 per month, or $700 each for a double room, while a typical studio apartment in downtown Seattle rented for approximately $1,530 per month as of August 2024.
The study's authors say this type of housing could reinvigorate downtown areas plagued by empty office buildings, the experts say.
"Cities across the country are facing two major challenges: a severe housing shortage and empty office buildings. This is a win-win," said Alex Horowitz, project director at Pew's housing policy initiative. "Housing is now the largest expense for families. All Americans, particularly underserved communities, need the opportunity to secure homes they can afford."
The report comes as the number of office spaces set for residential conversions is on the rise, up to 55,000 this year. That marks a 357% increase from 2021, according to Yardi Matrix data.
In Scottsdale, Rep. David Schweikert hopes an old-school GOP approach can help him hold onto a House seat that's increasingly turning blue.
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
Rep. David Schweikert represents an Arizona district that's increasingly turning blue.
But he's confident that he can maintain the support of upscale voters who've drifted from the GOP.
He sat down with BI to talk about the race, the national debt, abortion, and the state of his party.
It's nearly 2 p.m. on a Friday afternoon. Rep. David Schweikert, the Republican who's represented Scottsdale and its surrounding areas in Congress for nearly 14 years, has invited me for lunch at what he calls his hang-out spot: A small Indian restaurant in a strip mall just around the corner from his district office. There's a small photo of him standing with the owners hanging on the wall near the register.
On paper, Schweikert is one of the most endangered House Republicans in America. Suburbs across the country are only getting bluer in the age of Donald Trump, and Phoenix has been no exception. Plus, abortion's on the ballot in Arizona this year. In an era where college-educated voters have been bleeding out of the GOP, Schweikert is increasingly an outlier, and he knows it.
Arizona's first district, redrawn ahead of the last election cycle, is the fourth most educated in the country that's still held by a Republican. President Joe Biden would have won it by 1.5 points in 2020. Almost every statewide Democratic candidate, including now-Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly, handily carried the district in 2022. Meanwhile, Schweikert bested his Democratic opponent, Jevin Hodge, by roughly 3,200 votes that year. "With more money, we win that seat. The data is exceedingly clear," Jon Sutton, an Arizona-based Democratic strategist who worked on Hodge's campaign, told me.
"I'm sorry it's so hot," Schweikert tells me as we sit down, as if it's his fault. It's just over 100 degrees outside, which is significantly cooler than it's been over the last few weeks but still unseasonably warm for mid-October. It's fine, I tell him. I've mostly stayed inside here anyway. "A little bit of sunblock goes a long way," he offers, "being someone who's had things cut off his back." I assume he's talking about melanoma. "Actually," he says, pausing for several seconds as his face lights up, "not what you're here about, but look up 'melanoma vaccine.'"
As it turns out, there are vaccines for cancer, and the congressman's been trying to learn more about them. That gets him talking about the vaccine for Valley Fever, a disease caused by a fungus that's common in the Phoenix area. The congressman is, in his own words, "one of those people whose brain is going 1,000 miles a moment." Suddenly, he's distracted. A digital ad attacking his Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Amish Shah, has interrupted the YouTube video displaying Quranic recitations on the wall-mounted flat-screen TV across the room. "Welcome to the district," he says, raising his eyebrows as his face breaks into a wide grin.
Schweikert doesn't seem to be sweating his reelection. "We're gonna be fine," he tells me. Sure, Democrats keep making inroads with well-to-do voters, but the congressman points out that his district includes lots of very wealthy and "entrepreneurial" constituents, and they've generally remained Republican throughout the Trump era. Even if some of them are repelled by their party's descent into populism or election denial, Schweikert thinks they'll stick with him in order to safeguard their economic interests. After winning here seven times in a row, he feels he still has his finger on the pulse. "I have a district that's functionally me," says Schweikert. "I grew up here, I look like it, my education is exactly like the district. If you were going to go out and say, 'here's the candidate,' I'm sort of the central casting."
In order to keep looking like his district, Schweikert — a one-time conservative rabble-rouser who rode his way into Congress during the 2010 Tea Party wave — has had to make some changes. He left the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, a group he helped found, shortly after his near-loss in 2022, telling me that the caucus had "migrated away from being sort of that free market group" that they once were. "I'm a conservative, not a populist," he says.
There's also his delicate handling of Trump. Schweikert's obviously no super-fan. As the 2024 GOP presidential primary field began to take shape last year, the congressman told me at the time that he was closely watching the moves of one of his good friends, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. But now that Schweikert's sharing the ballot with Trump, he's not sweating that either. In fact, he says his own polling shows Trump ahead in the district: "We weren't actually prepared to see that." He's also the only House Republican from the state who has not been endorsed by the former president this year, which he shrugs off. Maybe it helps him anyway.
At an Indian restaurant in Scottsdale, Schweikert shows off a map of more than 5,600 voters who have requested yard signs from his campaign.
Bryan Metzger
Schweikert plans to vote for Trump, along with GOP Senate nominee Kari Lake. "I'll vote for my party, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to spend my time trying to help these people with how a calculator really works," he says, before pausing for a moment. "Am I being too sarcastic?"
'It was those sorts of arguments that I was losing'
Helping people use a calculator is sort of Schweikert's whole shtick. He's obsessed with America's growing national debt. I've had numerous interactions with him at the Capitol where he somehow steers an unrelated conversation back toward the issue. He regularly gives half-hour-long speeches to an empty House chamber on the debt and other unglamorous topics, though he's been heartened that some of them have garnered attention on YouTube. "'We Did It—Congratulations': David Schweikert Decries US Reaching $35 Trillion In National Debt," reads the title of a recent speech posted by Forbes. It has 1.5 million views. "Maybe there actually is a hunger from people who would like to be talked to like adults," he muses.
In Schweikert's view, neither the left nor the right has shown sufficient interest in tackling the debt. All of the tax hikes that Democrats would like to see for corporations and the wealthy won't raise nearly enough revenue, he says, while Republican proposals to cut non-defense discretionary spending will only scratch the surface when the vast majority of the government's spending goes toward Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
This is where things get politically dicey. Just by talking about those programs in a manner that deviates from the standard bipartisan pledge not to touch them, Schweikert has opened himself up to Democratic attacks. He knows this. He likens it to playing with "kerosene and matches." But while the Republican Study Committee, a group of which Schweikert is a member, released a budget this year that proposed cuts to those programs, the congressman says his main interest is driving down the baseline costs of healthcare, perhaps through developing new technologies. Hence our prior conversation about cancer vaccines.
The broad unwillingness to take the country's fiscal health seriously, Schweikert warns, will inevitably lead to outcomes like the depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which is set to become insolvent in a little over a decade, leading to significant cuts to Social Security retirement benefits. "At one level, I think it's almost evil what the Democrats do," Schweikert says. "They care so much more about winning the next election than they do about not doubling senior poverty. It's immoral. It's absolutely immoral."
While Schweikert often prefers to stay above the fray of contemporary politics, he's still a Republican who's interested in political survival in the Trump era, one who's racked up his share of controversies along the way. He's faced a total of $175,000 in fines from the Federal Election Commission and the House Ethics Committee for campaign finance violations committed in 2010 and 2018. He's engaged in scorched-earth tactics against GOP rivals that have drawn lawsuits and charges of bigotry, including a 2022 mailer that accused his primary opponent of "not being straight with" voters. Like most of his Republican colleagues, he voted to object to the counting of Pennsylvania's 2020 Electoral College votes, though he did not do the same for Arizona. And as he called into a local right-wing talk show in 2021, Schweikert entertained the idea that the FBI played a role in the January 6 insurrection. "He is a country club extremist. He knows the right polo shirts to wear," Sutton, the Democratic consultant, told me. "I think he knows how to do that part well."
Even as Schweikert bemoans the drift of his own party toward populism and conspiracy theorizing, he's careful to ensconce that judgment within a broad critique of a political culture that's unwilling to address major issues and is paralyzed by click-driven media and pandering politicians on both sides. For all of his concern about populism, Schweikert professed, during our conversation, to not have a "really formed opinion" on Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, the GOP's avowedly populist vice presidential nominee who recently faced scrutiny for spreading misinformation about Haitian migrants in Springfield. "I've been a little more self-focused than paying attention to the top of the ticket, or what other people have been doing," he says.
Schweikert with his adopted son, Matthew, at the Capitol in 2023.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
But the congressman does worry that his party has become too willing to start "using government as redress of grievances." It's a big reason he left the House Freedom Caucus.
To illustrate his point, he mentions a vote from July 2023 on an amendment to the Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization Act that would have required airlines to reinstate pilots who were fired for refusing to get vaccinated against COVID-19. "Do you empower government to tell who you hire, who to fire? A conservative would say, 'No, that's not in the Constitution, the market makes that decision, not my feelings,'" he says. "Go back and look at how many Republicans voted for that." It was 140. Schweikert was among the 83 who voted against it. "It was those sorts of arguments that I was losing and was never going to win anymore."
Despite these frustrations, Schweikert maintains a strangely optimistic view of what a second Trump presidency, along with a continued GOP majority in the House, could look like, even if he's increasingly outnumbered by the populists in his party.
"If it's a really close majority, the handful of those of us who I think are good at math, good at economics, good at these things, may actually have much more influence," he says. "You can't move it without the seven or eight of us who want markets to work."
He's not a fan of Trump's tariff plans — "I think tariffs create great distortions in markets" — and he's skeptical of the former president's proposal to exempt tips from taxation. "I can make it work," he says. "My fear is the traps you have to run to avoid scamming."
Schweikert is also bullish on the idea that a second Trump administration, despite plenty of evidence to the contrary, would have "enough adults" around to avoid the mistakes of last time, and that people who are "ideological, but not professional" would not be appointed to important positions.
"I'm 62 with a two-year-old," he says. "Of course I'm optimistic."
'Bless their precious hearts'
The morning after I met with Schweikert, I drove out to a cavernous union hall west of downtown Phoenix, where Amish Shah and other Democrats were rallying workers for a get-out-the-vote effort.
Schweikert's Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Amish Shah.
Courtesy/Amish for Arizona
A former Mayo Clinic emergency room doctor and thrice-elected state representative, Shah eked out a plurality of the vote in a crowded Democratic primary in July, besting a field of better-funded primary rivals to become Schweikert's 2024 opponent. It may have had something to do with knocking on doors. Shah has made canvassing, a routine campaign practice often delegated to volunteers and staff, a central aspect of his political identity. He told me he's knocked on a cumulative 22,000 doors since entering politics in 2017.
"What I hear sometimes is 'Amish, you're running in a conservative district. What is your path to victory?'" Shah said during a speech at the union hall. "I have an overwhelming, resounding answer to that: Show up."
Shah was best known in the legislature for frequently crossing the aisle and occasionally voting with Republicans, earning him comparisons to the state's retiring senator, Krysten Sinema. While that's rankled some Democrats in the state — even leading to him being reportedly excluded from some of his party's caucus meetings at the state Capitol — it may be the kind of record that helps him in a district like this. In an interview, Shah told me that his politics are informed in part by his own family's political divisions. His parents are "Trump-loving Republicans," while his sister and her husband are "hardcore Democrats," a situation that has, of course, led to some "rough Thanksgivings."
If Democrats failed to take this race seriously last time, they're not making that mistake again. Shah outraised Schweikert by a factor of nearly four to one from July to September, and the Democratic candidate reported having $1.4 million in cash left to spend — twice as much as the incumbent congressman.
Shah addressing a crowd at a union hall in Phoenix.
Bryan Metzger
There's also abortion. As is the case in every other race in America, Democrats are hoping that running on the issue will redound to their benefit. Schweikert is pro-life, which he says is influenced by his own experience of being adopted. In fact, he comes from a whole family of adoptees, including his father, his siblings, and both of his children. Until the current Congress, he was a consistent co-sponsor of the Life at Conception Act, a bill that would effectively outlaw abortion nationwide. But since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Schweikert has taken the view that a federal abortion ban would be unconstitutional. "You can do things around the edge, I guess," he told me. "It's pretty clear that it belongs to the states."
Schweikert plans to vote against Proposition 139, a ballot measure in Arizona that would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution and override the state's current 15-week ban. But he's not blind to the political realities of abortion in 2024, even if he admits to being a bit dismayed by it all. "It's going to pass overwhelmingly," he says of the ballot measure. "It is what it is."
But while Democrats are hoping the state-level vote will boost turnout on their side and remind voters of Republicans' opposition to abortion, Schweikert sees it differently. He believes he's actually set to benefit. Voters in his district, he says, will "get to vote for their personal economic interests" by voting for him, even if they decide to vote for the abortion ballot measure.
"This is where the Democrats screwed up. The candidate's not the proxy on the issue," Schweikert says. "They may have actually stuck it to themselves by putting it on the ballot."
A pro-abortion rights protest in Scottsdale in April, featuring an anti-Schweikert sign.
Frederic J. Brown / AFP via Getty Images
We'll know in about two weeks whether Schweikert is right, not just about the politics of abortion in Arizona, but about which way the winds are blowing in northern Maricopa County. "Bless their precious hearts," he says of Democrats' efforts to unseat him since 2018. But if his foes are right, the ground is shifting beneath the congressman, and he may not realize it.
The same afternoon we spoke, Vice President Kamala Harris was in Scottsdale. Her campaign has been wooing disaffected Republicans, including those who voted for Nikki Haley during the GOP primary, and one-fifth of Arizona's Haley voters are in Schweikert's district. The former ambassador to the United Nations got roughly 25% of the vote in this district during the March primary, which was held nearly two weeks after she dropped out. Meanwhile, Trump got just over 71% of the vote in the district — his worst showing in any of the state's nine districts. Yet when I mention Harris' presence to Schweikert, he seems taken aback. "That would be downtown," he says. "She wouldn't be up in this area."
In fact, Harris was five miles north of us, holding a "Republicans for Harris" event in a clubhouse at one of the many golf courses that dot the wealthy neighborhoods of North Scottsdale.