Testing for COVID-19 has declined. Experts worry it's too soon for the US to let its guard down.

WESTMINSTER, CA - OCTOBER 16: Physicians assistant Tom Bui administers a COVID-19 test at Temple Dieu Ngu in Westminster, CA, on Friday, October 16, 2020. The Orange County Health Care Agency has contracted with the OC Asian American Pacific Island COVID-19 Taskforce to increase testing in these disproportionately affected communities. Together, they are launching the API Testing Strike Team with testing locations county-wide offering testing three times a week through December 31, 2020.

Photo by Jeff Gritchen/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

• Testing sites across the country are closing due to limited demand for COVID-19 tests. 
• The trend comes as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have been in decline. 
• Experts are concerned that without testing, cases can rise, especially as variants spread. 
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Limited demand for coronavirus tests is prompting sites across the country to shut down, which has experts worried about another rise in cases. 

Earlier this week, Georgia permanently closed testing sites in 10 of its northwest counties because of a decline in demand and limited resources, WRCBTV reported. 

Some testing sites in South Carolina rolled back their hours of operation as demand also declined in the state, WIS10 reported. 

On Friday, the Associated Press reported that in Los Angeles County, the largest in the country, more than 180 sites were only working at a third of their capacity. 

On January 15, the US was averaging over 2 million tests per day, a peak that has since dropped by more than 28%, the AP found. 

The decline in testing comes as coronavirus cases in the US dropped by 70% over the past six weeks. Hospitalizations and deaths have also been on the decline. 

Officials told the AP that the decline in cases, as well as the winter weather, pandemic fatigue, and the growing vaccination effort, are contributing to the lack of interest in testing. 

"When you combine all those together you see this decrease," Dr. Richard Pescatore of the health department in Delaware told the AP. "People just aren't going to go out to testing sites." The state has seen a more than 40% drop in testing.

Experts say testing is critical to preventing another surge, especially as the risk of new and more transmissible variants remains on the horizon. A strain discovered in the United Kingdom is expected to become the most dominant variant in many states by next month. 

"We need to use testing to continue the downward trend," Dr. Jonathan Quick of the Rockefeller Foundation, told the AP. "We need to have it there to catch surges from the variants."

On Friday, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that in recent days there was a rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases. 

Meanwhile, health officials are worried that the progress is "stalling" and say that it's too soon for the US to let its guard down.

"Over the last few weeks, cases and hospital admissions in the United States had been coming down since early January and deaths had been declining in the past week," Walensky said. "But the latest data suggests that these declines may be stalling, potentially leveling off at, still, a very high number." 

A study by researchers at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and the University of Colorado Boulder released in November found that more testing, even with less reliable rapid tests, could help quell the pandemic. 

Researchers found that if half the population was tested weekly and those who tested positive were isolated, it could significantly reduce the spread of the virus. 

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Gurgaon: Officials Declare Apartment Complex As Containment Zone After 20 Residents Test Covid-19 Positive

<p><strong>Gurgaon:</strong> An apartment complex in the city was detected and declared as a Coronavirus containment zone after test results of 20 residents turned out to be positive.</p> <p>The apartment complex is in Gurgaon's Sector 67. Samples were taken from residents after three people tested positive for Covid-19. When the results came, 20 more were found positive, district health department officer J Prakash told news agency ANI.</p> <p><strong>ALSO READ | <span style="color: #e03e2d;"><a style="color: #e03e2d;" href="https://ift.tt/3bRmAGe Khap Panchayat Urges Dairy Farmers To Sell Milk At Rs 100 Per Litre In Protest Against Farm Laws, Fuel Price Hike</a></span></strong></p> <p>"First, three cases were reported, after which a testing camp was set up. Some 20 people turned out positive, so we declared it as a containment zone. More tests are being conducted," Prakash was quoted as saying.</p> <p>Recently, the Health Ministry stated that 89.57 percent of the new cases are from seven states, these are Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.</p> <p>The surge in Coronavirus cases is being seen as a challenge as India's vaccination drive enters phase 2 wherein people above the age of 60 years and those aged 45 years with comorbidities are set to receive the Covid-19 vaccine jab.</p> <p>The Union government has formed high-level multi-disciplinary teams and deputed them to Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Jammu and Kashmir (UT) to determine the reasons behind the surge in new Coronavirus cases.</p> <p>These teams will also coordinate with the state health departments in carrying out control and containment measures.</p> <p>(With Agency Inputs)</p>

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How does Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine stack up against shots from Pfizer and Moderna?

Vials of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine.

Patrick Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

• Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine was shown to be 66% effective at preventing mild and moderate infections, and 85% effective at preventing severe disease, in FDA data released Wednesday.
• It doesn't appear to be as effective as Moderna or Pfizer's mRNA vaccines, though it is nearly just as good at preventing hospitalizations and deaths.
• It has the benefits of being cheap and relatively easy to manufacture and distribute. It only requires one shot in the arm, and side effects tend to be milder. 
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The US Food and Drug Administration on Saturday authorized Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine.

The shot is 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, according to data released on Wednesday. 

At first glance, the vaccine doesn't appear to be as stellar as FDA authorized vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, but it does have a few perks. 

First and foremost: J&J's vaccine is just one shot in the arm, while both Pfizer and Moderna's are administered as two doses, given several weeks apart. Second, it can be refrigerated for three months, making transportation and storage far less of a challenge. Third, it appears to have a milder set of side effects. And finally, it is cheaper and easier to produce. 

"Our goal all along has been to create a simple, effective solution for the largest number of people possible, and to have maximum impact to help end the pandemic," Johnson & Johnson Chief Executive Officer Alex Gorsky said in a statement when his company's results were released in late January. 

During a call at the National Institutes of Health last month, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US' top infectious disease expert, also stressed the importance of adding "yet another platform, another candidate into the mix in our global efforts against this extraordinary pandemic."

"This has really important domestic and global public health implications," Fauci said of the J&J vaccine, noting that "it is one shot," that doesn't need to be stored at super-chilled temperatures, and it is relatively inexpensive.

Below are the basics of how these three COVID-19 shots compare, based on what we know so far.

How well the shots prevent illnesses: 

Moderna: 94.1% effective at preventing symptomatic infections, 100% effective at preventing severe infections, after two doses.

Pfizer: 95% effective at preventing symptomatic infections, nearly 100% effective at preventing severe infections (one case among more than 18,000 vaccinated individuals in the trials), after two doses.

Johnson & Johnson: 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe infections, 85% effective at preventing severe infections, after a single dose. (There were five confirmed severe cases among more than 19,000 fully vaccinated individuals in the trials, meaning people who'd received the shot at least 28 days prior.)

Bruno Cassaro de Andrade, a chemical engineering student, works with a test separating specific proteins to be applied in the production of coronavirus vaccines on March 24, 2020 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Pedro Vilela/Getty Images

How well the shots prevented hospitalizations and deaths:

Moderna: Zero hospitalizations or deaths 14 days after the second shot.

Pfizer: Zero hospitalizations or deaths seven days after the second shot.

Johnson & Johnson: Zero hospitalizations or deaths 28 days after the single shot. 

How many people tried them out: 

Moderna: trials included more than 30,000 volunteers across the US.

Pfizer: trials included more than 40,000 volunteers across six countries: the US, Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, Germany, and South Africa.

Johnson & Johnson: trials included more than 40,000 volunteers across eight countries: the US, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. 

About half of the volunteers in each company's study got real shots, and half got fake (placebo) jabs, to test out how well the vaccines work, compared to nothing. 

How they work: 

Moderna: mRNA.

Pfizer: mRNA.

Johnson & Johnson: adenovirus. (It's the same platform as an Ebola vaccine that was approved for use in the European Union last July.) 

How you take them:

Moderna: Two shots in the arm, given 28 days apart.

Pfizer: Two shots in the arm, given 21 days apart.

Johnson & Johnson: One shot in the arm.

A nurse at the Royal Cornwall Hospital prepares to administer a COVID-19 vaccine in Truro, United Kingdom.

Hugh Hastings/Getty Images

Most common side effects:

Moderna: arm pain (91.6%), fatigue (68.5%), headache (63.0%), muscle pain (59.6%), joint pain (44.8%), and chills (43.4%).

Pfizer: arm pain (84.1%), fatigue (62.9%), headache (55.1%), muscle pain (38.3%), chills (31.9%), joint pain (23.6%), fever (14.2%). 

Johnson & Johnson: arm pain (48.6%), headaches (38.9%), fatigue (38.2%), and muscle aches (33.2%).

How long it takes for protection to kick in:

Moderna: some protection from infection begins 10-14 days after the first shot, with full protection achieved two weeks after the second shot.

Pfizer: some protection from infection begins 10-14 days after the first shot, with full protection achieved one week after the second shot. 

Johnson & Johnson: some protection from infection begins as early as 14 days after the shot, with full protection measured 28 days after the jab. 

How long hospitals and clinics can store it in the fridge 

Moderna: 30 days.

Pfizer: Five days.

Johnson & Johnson: Three months.

"The company can actually produce, in a reasonable period of time, billions of doses," Fauci added, suggesting that though this vaccine may not be as potent as the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, it could become a more widespread tool to help suppress the pandemic.

This story has been updated with new information from FDA briefing documents and with additional details after the FDA authorized J&J's vaccine. 

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J&J's coronavirus shot could dramatically accelerate the US vaccine rollout. Here's your new vaccination timeline.

A clinical trial volunteer participates in Johnson & Johnson's study to test a coronavirus vaccine.

Janssen

• Johnson & Johnson's single-dose coronavirus shot was just authorized for emergency use.
• With fresh vaccine doses from J&J, the US could finish vaccinating priority groups in March.
• The US could distribute 500 million doses by the end of June — enough to vaccinate all of its adult population.
• Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

A shot for every American. Political leaders and vaccine manufacturers have endeavored to meet this goal since the start of the pandemic, and it could finally become a reality this summer.

The vaccination campaign got a major boost on Saturday, when the US Food and Drug Administration greenlit Johnson & Johnson's single-dose coronavirus shot. An FDA review published on Wednesday showed the shot is safe and effective against COVID-19.

J&J's shot will be the third coronavirus vaccine to be distributed across the US. Vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna have been administered to more than 48 million Americans thus far, though fewer than 24 million Americans have gotten the full two-dose regimen. 

Pfizer and Moderna have pledged to distribute 600 million doses to the US public by the end of July - enough to fully vaccinate 300 million people. J&J, meanwhile, has said it could deliver up to 100 million doses of its vaccine by the end of June.

That means that by the summer, the US would have more than enough doses to vaccinate all 332 million-plus Americans (though shots haven't been authorized for children under 16 yet).

Here's a timeline of how vaccinations could ramp up in the next five months:

• March 31: 240 million doses distributed
• May 31: 420 million doses distributed
• June 30: 500 million doses distributed
• July 31: 700 million doses distributed

Pfizer's and Moderna's vaccines are each more than 90% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19, while J&J's appears to be 66% effective at preventing moderate and severe cases. It's difficult to compare the companies' trials side-by-side, though, since they happened at different stages in the pandemic and in different geographic regions.

End of March: Wrapping up vaccinations for priority groups

J&J originally planned to deliver 12 million doses by the end of February. But federal officials have said that just 3 to 4 million doses would be immediately available next week.

By the end of March, the company will likely have produced 20 million doses, Richard Nettles, J&J's vice president of US medical affairs, said at a House committee hearing on Tuesday.

Jeffrey Zients, the White House coronavirus czar, called the slow pace of J&J's manufacturing "disappointing" on Wednesday. But the government has started helping the company procure equipment and raw materials, he said, which is accelerating the pace.

Pfizer and Moderna, meanwhile, are on track to distribute a cumulative 220 million doses by March 31.

UPS employees move a shipping container with Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine inside a sorting facility in Louisville, Kentucky on December 13, 2020.

Michael Clevenger - Pool/Getty Images

At Tuesday's hearing, Pfizer's chief business officer, John Young, said the company intends to make 120 million doses available by the end of March (including the roughly 40 million doses shipped so far). Moderna's president, Stephen Hoge, said the company would deliver 100 million doses (including 54 million that have gone out already) within the same time frame.

That means the US could finish vaccinating priority groups - including the elderly, essential workers, and people with high-risk medical conditions - next month. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that these groups encompass roughly 200 million people.

End of May: The general population gets its shots 

In total, all three pharmaceutical companies are expected to deliver around 420 million doses by the end of May. Vaccinations for the general public could be in full swing by April.

Pfizer is on track to produce an additional 80 million doses by the end of May, bringing the company's US total to 200 million. Moderna originally planned to deliver an additional 100 million doses in the US by the end of June, but now those should arrive in May.

People wait in line in a Disneyland parking lot to receive COVID-19 vaccines in Anaheim, California.

Valerie Macon/AFP/Getty Images

Both companies are also still trying to speed up their vaccine rollouts.

Pfizer told USA TODAY it has added more production lines at its manufacturing plants, reduced the amount of time it takes to produce vaccine batches, and will soon cut down the time it takes to make DNA for the vaccines. In January, the FDA also instructed vaccinators to squeeze six doses from every vial of Pfizer's vaccine, rather than the five that were initially authorized in December.

Hoge said Moderna is "working to enable up to 15 doses per vial in the near term," instead of the 10 that vaccinators extract right now.

A recent report from the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, found that 50% of the US population could be protected from COVID-19 by mid-May if the J&J shot gets authorized. Without that third vaccine, it could take an additional two to three weeks to reach that point, the researchers said. 

End of June: All adults could have access to a shot

Nettles said J&J could deliver up to 100 million vaccine doses by June 30 (including the 20 million doses from the spring). That would bring the total coronavirus shots distributed in the US to 500 million - enough to vaccinate 300 million people, or all of the roughly 259 million adults in the US.

Federal officials still hope J&J can speed up that timeline.

"We're working with the company to accelerate the pace and timeframe by which they deliver the full 100 million doses, which is required by contract by the end of June," Zients said Wednesday. 

The American Enterprise Institute estimated that 75% of the US population could be protected from COVID-19 by mid- to late June, assuming that J&J's shot gets authorized. 

A dentist receives the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in Anaheim, California on January 8, 2020.

mark Rightmire/Getty Images

End of July: The US could have a surplus of doses

By the end of July, the US could have more vaccines than it's able to distribute.

Experts don't expect the nation's roughly 73 million children to start getting coronavirus shots until the fall or winter - or perhaps early 2022 - because there is not yet data about the vaccines' safety or efficacy among younger age groups. (The exception is Pfizer's shot, which is authorized for ages 16 and up.)

Both Pfizer and Moderna intend to deliver another 100 million doses each by the end of July, bringing the companies' total doses to 300 million each. The US hasn't purchased more than that, though it has the option to buy 200 million more doses each from J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer.

According to the American Enterprise Institute, "the addition of a third [vaccine] candidate will mean that anywhere from 22% to 33% more of the population can be vaccinated by July."

This article was updated on February 27 with FDA's decision to issue an emergency use authorization for J&J's vaccine.

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What to do if you lose your COVID-19 vaccine card

Covid-19 vaccine cards help you remember when to get your second shot.

EJ Hersom, Department of Defense

• COVID-19 vaccine cards remind recipients when to get a second dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.
• The CDC recommends taking a photo of vaccine cards as a backup, but avoid posting them online.
• Go back to where you got inoculated if you misplace your paper card.
• Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Millions of newly inoculated Americans are walking home with paper vaccine cards containing crucial information about their COVID-19 vaccine.

The CDC-issued paper COVID-19 vaccine cards serve as reminders for when to get a second dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine. The CDC is not collecting information on who received COVID-19 vaccines, meaning the paper card also works as proof that you've gotten your shot.

What happens if you lose the small paper card? You can still get a second dose, but the CDC recommends taking a photo of the card upon receiving it. 

Here's everything to know about your COVID-19 vaccine card:

What are COVID-19 vaccine cards?

The Trump administration designed the cards as ways to remind vaccine recipients when to get a second dose. Recipients or their vaccine providers write when they got the first dose and what shot they received on the cards.

The Moderna vaccine requires two doses taken four weeks apart, and the Pfizer vaccine requires two shots three weeks apart. 

The US designed the card system to encourage vaccine recipients to show up for second doses, as some studies show a significant number of women did not return to get second doses of the human papillomavirus vaccine, which protects against cervical cancer.

Though the one shot of Pfizer and BioNTech can significantly reduce risk of catching infection, the body takes weeks to build immunity. Data from rigorous trials suggested the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines provide near 95% protection against mild COVID-19 and 100% against hospitalization and death, but only when participants followed the two-shot protocol.

What do you need COVID-19 vaccine cards for?

The Centers for Disease Control is not collecting vaccine information when Americans go to get shots; the information on paper cards do not go into an online CDC database. 

Therefore, the vaccine cards can work as proof that you've been inoculated at least once. Many states have their own system for tracking when patients receive vaccines, as do hospitals, clinics, and other organizations store information about vaccines, a CDC spokesperson told McClatchy News.

Some businesses are looking into ways to use proof of vaccines to allow for better opening protocols. The International Air Transport Association, or the trade association of international airlines, is working on ways to digitize vaccine cards. Nick Careen, a senior vice president at IATA, told The Points Guy paper vaccine cards are easy to forge, but digital versions can help the airline industry reopen.

What happens when you lose a COVID-19 card?

The federal government suggests taking a photo of your vaccine card in case it gets lost, the Better Business Bureau warned not to post the pictures on social media. The BBB, a non-profit consumer advocacy group, reported scammers had tried selling fraudulent vaccine cards online. 

The card also contain personal information that hackers can use to get access to your accounts, the BBB said. 

The CDC recommends using V-safe, a free tool that can send reminders on when to get a second dose. V-safe, which requires a smartphone, does not help you schedule vaccine appointments.

If you misplace the card without having created a backup, Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security told ABC News to go back to the place you got a shot and ask for a replacement. Knowing the manufacturer (Moderna or Pfizer) and the recommended time to your second shot is imperative for decreasing your chances of infection, AARP said. 

And, if you can, hold on to your card after getting a second dose in case officials decide to use them for other purposes, like schools, Crystal Tubbs, associate director of pharmacy at Ohio State University, told Good Housekeeping. 

"Not all medical record systems 'talk' to each other, so this card serves as a backup of the most important information," Tubbs said.

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If we don't waive vaccine patents, thousands of people will needlessly die

Smith showed off his bandage to the press at the University of Louisville Hospital.

Jon Cherry/Getty Images

• Pharmaceutical companies are holding the COVID-19 vaccine hostage.
• Because of intellectual property laws, vaccines aren't being distributed as fast as they could be.
• This has resulted in a "vaccine apartheid" and it doesn't have to be this way.
• Will Meyer is a freelance writer and co-editor of The Shoestring in western Massachusetts.
• This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
• Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

In record time, major pharmaceutical companies - boosted by significant government funding - developed multiple vaccines for COVID-19. Yet, as vaccines are beginning to be distributed, the term "vaccine nationalism" is entering the global vernacular. 

Despite the fact that effective vaccines have been developed, they are not being manufactured fast enough. According to UNICEF data, only 43% of COVID vaccine manufacturing potential is currently being utilized for approved vaccines. This is because of pharmaceutical manufacturers' desire to protect their intellectual property - the proprietary formulas and technologies used to produce the vaccine - and not share with countries and manufacturers which have the capacity to produce more doses. 

To put it bluntly, these companies would rather protect their profit margins than preserve human life. 

All vaccine distribution is not created equal

At the onset of the pandemic, AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer planned to make enough vaccines for one third of the world's population. But rich countries are buying up and hoarding available doses for their own citizens, sometimes buying more than three times as many doses as they need. While more than 100 million people have already received their first dose of the vaccine, only 4% of doses are being administered in the Global South (mainly in India). According to Oxfam International, in the world's poorest countries, Guinea is the leader, having vaccinated just 55 people. 

Many business leaders, health policy experts, and government officials fear that if the vaccine capacity is dictated by intellectual property rules rather than need, the virus will continue to spread and mutate while the vaccine campaign drags on. Continued mutation and spread would impact the world economy more severely than if wealthy countries (and the global institutions where they have sway) reduced these artificial barriers to access and got the vaccine out more quickly.

Global health advocates are banding together and have created a Peoples' Vaccine Alliance: chief among their demands is a relaxing of intellectual property rights so that manufacturing capacity can be increased. 

"Our best chance of all staying safe is to ensure a COVID-19 vaccine is available for all as a global common good. This will only be possible with a transformation in how vaccines are produced and distributed - pharmaceutical corporations must allow the COVID-19 vaccines to be produced as widely as possible by sharing their knowledge free from patents," the group's website states. 

"Instead they are protecting their monopolies and putting up barriers to restrict production and drive up prices, leaving us all in danger. No one company can produce enough for the whole world. So long as vaccine solutions are kept under lock and key, there won't be enough to go around." 

More than that, Lois Chingandu, the Director of Frontline AIDS points out that "Over $100 billion of taxpayers' money has funded these vaccines, while the companies behind the three successful vaccine candidates are set to make over $30 billion in revenue this year alone." 

The US funded six different COVID vaccines: AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Novavax, Merck, and Sanofi. As economist Dean Baker pointed out, "If the vaccine had proven to be ineffective, the government would have borne the cost, while [the drug companies] still would have been paid." 

Although the governments significantly contributed to the research and development of the leading vaccines, because of intellectual property laws, corporations can still profit on medicines that governments fund. In the US, this is due to the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act, which authorized companies to patent government funded medicines. An analysis by Baker suggests that "the amount of money transferred from the rest of us to those in a position to benefit from IP comes to more than $1 trillion annually." 

He argues that the morality of wealth gained through intellectual property claims is often obscured by debates about technology more broadly, an "impersonal force" rather than a deliberate "policy choice." 

This deliberate policy choice has a history of indirectly killing tens of millions of poor people across the world. 

A new example of an old inequality

This isn't a new problem, nor is it novel to the novel coronavirus. In fact, when AIDS spread in African countries during the late 1990s and early 2000s, pharmaceutical companies had a cocktail of drugs that suppressed symptoms, but priced these drugs out of reach for the world's poor. 

As recalled by the 2013 film Fire in The Blood, Indian drugmaker Cipla produced a generic cocktail that was identical to what Western pharmaceutical companies had created. Cipla's drugs cost $350 per year, whereas Western drugs cost up to $15,000 per year - a symbolic price of $1 per day. But companies and institutions doubled down protecting their IP and made it illegal for these cheaper drugs to be purchased by countries like Uganda and South Africa, despite the fact that the entire African continent comprised just 1% of the global pharmaceutical market. 

It is estimated that the protection of these patents cost upwards of 10 million human lives. The artificial wall preventing generic drugs from reaching people who needed them finally broke when a Ugandan doctor defied the law and went to jail for shipping Cipla's drugs into his country. Although this action did loosen the grip on moving AIDS drugs (the US did start shipping generic AIDS drugs), the World Trade Organization's TRIPS Agreement - which enforces IP claims on a global scale - remains in place. 

On February 4th, the World Trade Organization met to discuss intellectual property as it relates to COVID vaccines. The German outlet DW reported that rich countries "balked" at calls from India and South Africa to relax patent rules, and opted to keep the status quo in place. 

Right now, despite receiving R&D funding from the government, Pfizer is still making a hefty 80% profit margin selling it's vaccine for about $39 for two doses, cementing the brutal truth that Big Pharma and their government enablers are willing to let people die to protect their bottom line. 

The Peoples' Vaccine Alliance is calling on President Biden, the UK and EU to pressure drug companies to share their publicly funded technology with more producers so that the world can be vaccinated more efficiently. They are asking that IP claims be waived so that the murderous missteps - policy choices - of the 1990s don't happen again.

Will Meyer is a freelance writer and co-editor of The Shoestring in western Massachusetts. His writing has appeared in The Baffler, The New Republic, CJR, and many other publications. Find him on Twitter @willinabucket.

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Sweden has U-turned on several of its coronavirus measures and is now facing its first lockdown, warns PM

Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven speaks at a press conference after the parliament adopted a temporary pandemic law on January 8, 2021 in Stockholm, Sweden.

Fredrik Sandberg/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images

• Sweden announced a further tightening of measures this week as its COVID-19 cases continue to climb.
• The country could also be facing its first lockdown, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven warned this week.
• New infections have prompted Sweden to gradually abandon its unique approach it first adopted.
• Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven warned this week that the country is facing its first lockdown since the start of the pandemic as it seems unable to control its rising coronavirus case numbers.

The country, which famously relied on mostly voluntary measures during the pandemic, has been forced to gradually tighten its distinct approach after it's seen a rise in cases in the last two weeks.

On Thursday, Sweden reported more than 4,800 new coronavirus cases and 40 deaths - the highest since the beginning of the month, according to a John Hopkins University's tracker Sweden has recorded more than 659,000 cases since the start of the pandemic.

"We are seeing an increase in cases again, we need to take new measures," Lofven said at a press briefing on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. "If the situation gets worse, the government is prepared to enforce a possible lockdown in parts of Sweden. Hopefully, that will not be needed."

Sweden has been scrambling to get its rising cases under control for several weeks now. In December, the government issued its first recommendation to wear face masks - a topic that was largely taboo in the country.

One month later, Sweden closed its borders with neighboring countries Norway and Denmark and also introduced a law that would allow the government to close restaurants, shops, and public transport to combat the spread of COVID-19.

Measures were tightened even further this week, when Lofven announced that as of March 1, restaurants and cafés which do not serve alcohol will have to close at 8.30 pm and that there will be a limit on the number of people allowed in shops and gyms.

Restaurants in shopping malls will become takeaway only, and amateur sports will also be stopped, Lofven said.

The restrictions come not only as cases continue to rise but also as public health experts have indicated that the country's health system is now facing the virus's new variants. 

Anders Tegnell, the architect of Sweden's initial no-lockdown response, said on Tuesday that it now seemed "almost inevitable" that the more infectious UK variant would become dominant in Sweden, The Telegraph reported. In Stockholm, it is already identified in 27 percent of samples tested.

A day after Sweden announced tweaks to its measures, the prime minister of neighboring Finland declared a three-week coronavirus lockdown starting March 8, which would see all restaurants closed and a maximum of six allowed to gather. 

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The bond market is in rebellion over Biden's stimulus - but not because it would be bad for the economy

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell.

Yuri Gripas/Reuters

• The Treasury market is defying Fed messaging and signs of lasting economic damage.
• Soaring yields signal investors expect the Fed to lift interest rates well before past estimates.
• Fed officials will likely need to address the bond-market rout to avoid disruption to the economic recovery.
• Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

The Treasury market has made it clear: the Federal Reserve is a downer.

Optimism toward the US economic recovery flourished over the past week. Daily COVID-19 case counts fell further from their January peak. Vaccinations continued across the country, hinting the pandemic could fade in just a few months. Economic data beat expectations. And Democrats pushed forward with President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal, aiming to accelerate the rebound even more.

And yet, these encouraging developments fueled a sudden shock in the Treasury market.

Investors looking to capitalize on a swift recovery dumped government bonds and pushed cash into riskier assets. The 10-year yield soared as high as 1.614% on Thursday, its highest level since the pandemic first slammed the US. The jump immediately cut into stocks' appeal and dragged major indexes lower throughout the week.

Markets Insider

The narrative behind the move is simple: The increased likelihood of new stimulus juicing the recovery lifted expectations for faster economic growth and inflation. Stronger price growth leads investors to demand higher yields.

Yet the market moved to such an extreme that it now stands in contrast with the Federal Reserve's own forecast. The central bank has indicated it doesn't expect inflation to reach its above-2% target until after 2023. The outlook suggests the Fed will hold interest rates near zero through 2023.

The sell-off in Treasurys, however, signals investors are pricing in a rate hike as early as the second half of 2022.

"We're now getting to the point where the market isn't necessarily believing what the Fed is telling," Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, told Insider. "We've now moved to a slightly more concerning ground, where it seems like the Fed's messaging is not powerful enough."

Too much of a good thing

Central bank policymakers have so far held their ground. The jump in yields suggests investors are expecting a "robust and ultimately complete recovery," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday. The chair reiterated that the Fed won't cut down on asset purchases or consider rate hikes until it sees "substantial further progress" toward its inflation and employment targets.

At its core, the sell-off is merely part of the reflation trade, a strategy used to profit from stronger price growth. But the pace at which yields rose is cause for concern, Kathy Bostjancic, head US financial market economist at Oxford Economics, said.

Thursday's leap was the biggest single-day move since December, and overall bond-market volatility rocketed to its highest since April, according to Bloomberg data. Finally, the gains came despite the Fed continuing to buy at least $80 billion in Treasurys each month.

Chart via BofA Research.

Bank of America Global Research

Since yields serve as the benchmark for the global credit market, a sudden rise can rapidly lift borrowing costs, sending rates for mortgages, car loans, and even utilities higher.

If yields gain too much, too quickly, the price action can be "destabilizing," Bostjancic said. The shock would come as real unemployment still stands at around 10% and industries hit hardest by the pandemic remain far from full recoveries.

"It could choke off this nascent recovery before it gets going," she said.

Others aren't so concerned. Bank of America strategists led by Gonzalo Asis said the trend was less inspired by rate-hike expectations and simply a case of "buying the fundamental dip" before strong economic growth.

There's room for yields to climb higher still, Bostjancic said. Real yields - nominal yields adjusted for inflation - remain negative, signaling there's still enough weakness in the economy to warrant parking cash in the safe haven.

Looking back to look ahead

To be sure, this is far from the first time markets have abruptly reacted to tightening fears.

Concerns of premature tightening of monetary policy fueled the now-famous "taper tantrum" of 2013, when investors rapidly dumped Treasurys after the central bank announced it would reduce the pace of its asset purchases, fueling a sudden - albeit temporary - shock to the bond market.

The Fed will likely move first in this case  to avoid additional Treasury-market drama, Bank of America economists led by Michelle Meyer said in a Friday note. Updated economic forecasts set to be published after the Federal Open Market Committee's mid-March meeting should offer some hints at when the Fed's rate-hike criteria could be reached, the team said.

"The risk, however, is that the Fed won't have the luxury of waiting for the next meeting and will have to respond to the abrupt market moves in speeches this week," the economists added.

If the taper tantrum is anything to go by, communication is a difficult balancing act for the central bank. Powell has already said he doesn't expect any stimulus-fueled jump in inflation to be "large or persistent," but that commentary did little to calm the sell-off in Treasurys.

Unless the Fed further clarifies its inflation target, investors will remain in the dark as to when tapering could arrive, Shah said.

"There's so much room for interpretation in terms of how long inflation has to be above 2%, at what level does inflation need to be above 2%," she said. "That lack of clarity gives the market that room to wonder, 'what does the Fed actually mean by that?'"

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